Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 29

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Landry R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 8
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Caen		Metz

	1	X	2
	4	3.75	1.8	Watch
	5	3.7	1.66
	4.6	3.8	1.69
	4.41	3.81	1.74	Watch
	5	3.6	1.67
	4.31	3.88	1.83	Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.56 ↑ (4.09)	3.76 ↑ (3.55)	1.73 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 2 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra

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Current Win Probability

Caen
20.6%

Draw
25%

Metz
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

26.3%

50.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

25.5%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	5%	85%

Caen - Metz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Metz (2.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Metz (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Caen (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Metz will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Metz will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Caen (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Metz (votes: 7 - 87.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 25. Sy L. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 61. Traore B. 27. Gaudin J. 20. Lebreton N. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 17. Kyeremeh G. 24. Benrahou Y. 21. Grandsir S. 19. Mendy A.	29. Bodart A. (G) 38. Sane S. 22. Van Den Kerkhof K. 8. Traore I. 3. Udol M. (C) 36. Jallow A. 21. Stambouli B. 20. Deminguet J. 7. Hein G. 18. Gueye I. 14. Sabaly C.
Substitutes
23. Autret M. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 4. Henry V. 8. Le Bihan M. 28. Lecoeuche Q. 50. Najim I. 14. Rajot L.	19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 10. Diallo P. A. 15. Lo A. 16. Oukidja A. (G) 9. Sane I. 12. Toure A.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Lebreton N. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Van Den Kerkhof K. ⚽, Udol M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 1, Grandsir S. ⚽,
50', Traore B. 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Sabaly C. ⚽, Van Den Kerkhof K. (A),
62', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
68', Benrahou Y. ↓, Najim I. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Lebreton N. ⚽,
72', Grandsir S. ↓, Lecoeuche Q. ↑,
74', M'Vila Y. 🟨,
78', Sane S. 🟨,
81', Stambouli B. ↓, Colin M. ↑,
81', Jallow A. ↓, Diallo P. A. ↑,
81', Van Den Kerkhof K. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
84', Gaudin J. ↓, Autret M. ↑,
89', Gueye I. ↓, Sane I. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 2.

Caen is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Metz is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Metz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Metz is a favorite.

There will not play in Caen: Tome G. (Suspended)

There will not play in Metz: Kouao K. (Red Card) Lo A. (Injury) Mangondo J. (Injury) Sane I. (Inactive) Sy P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Caen: Thomas R. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Caen won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16:13 (average 1.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:2 (average 1.2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
31.03.25	Paris FC - Caen	4:2 ✺
14.03.25	Amiens - Caen	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Caen - Laval	0:1 ✺
28.02.25	Clermont - Caen	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Caen - Pau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLWT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
28.03.25	Metz - Troyes	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Dunkerque - Metz	2:3 ✺
08.03.25	Metz - Annecy	5:1 ✺
01.03.25	Amiens - Metz	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Metz - Ajaccio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
09.11.24	Metz - Caen	1:0
13.02.23	Metz - Caen	0:0
08.08.22	Caen - Metz	1:0
French Ligue 1
21.04.18	Metz - Caen	1:1
Coupe De France
07.02.18	Metz - Caen	2:3 penalties
French Ligue 1
26.08.17	Caen - Metz	1:0
15.04.17	Metz - Caen	2:2

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