Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 28

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Legat P. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free


	Metz		Troyes

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	5	Watch
	1.7	3.5	5
	1.69	3.5	5.2
	1.72	3.48	5.16
	1.67	3.52	5.46	Watch
	1.73	3.5	5
	1.77	3.53	5.35	Watch
	1.69	3.5	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.72)	3.48 ↑ (3.47)	5.17 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
55%

Draw
26.9%

Troyes
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

26.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

26%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.2%	0%	3.8%

Metz - Troyes Predictions

Users Predictions: Metz will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.75% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Bodart A. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 3. Udol M. (C) 36. Jallow A. 12. Toure A. 20. Deminguet J. 7. Hein G. 18. Gueye I. 14. Sabaly C.	16. Lemaitre N. (G) 17. Mendes H. 6. Monfray A. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 23. Gozzi P. 26. Phliponeau A. 21. Irie C. 8. Diop M. 7. Chavalerin X. 11. Said R. 9. El Idrissy M.
Substitutes
99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 10. Diallo P. A. 6. Nduquidi J. 16. Oukidja A. (G) 8. Traore I.	24. Adeline M. 15. Assoumou J. 1. Boucher Z. (G) 14. Boura I. 12. de Preville N. 42. Kante A. 10. M'Changama Y.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	Dumont S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Toure A. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Hein G. ⚽, Gueye I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', Sane S. 🟨,
65', El Idrissy M. ↓, de Preville N. ↑,
65', Gozzi P. ↓, Boura I. ↑,
65', Chavalerin X. ↓, M'Changama Y. ↑,
72', Said R. ↓, Assoumou J. ↑,
80', Phliponeau A. ↓, Adeline M. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Jallow A. ⚽, Hein G. (A),
86', Jallow A. ↓, Diallo P. A. ↑,
87', Sabaly C. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
87', Gueye I. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, de Preville N. ⚽,
90+3', Toure A. ↓, Nduquidi J. ↑,
90+6', Kouao K. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Metz won 2.

Metz is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Troyes is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Metz is a favorite.

There will not play in Metz: Lo A. (Injury) Mangondo J. (Injury) Nduquidi J. (Inactive) Sy P. (Injury)

There will not play in Troyes: Adeline M. (Injury) Hamdi M. (Injury) Ripart R. (Knee Injury) Tahrat M. (Leg Injury)

Our prediction for today's Metz to win the game is with odds 1.69.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Metz won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 17:16 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Metz won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
15.03.25	Dunkerque - Metz	2:3 ✺
08.03.25	Metz - Annecy	5:1 ✺
01.03.25	Amiens - Metz	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Metz - Ajaccio	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Guingamp - Metz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLW
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
14.03.25	Troyes - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
07.03.25	Pau - Troyes	0:2 ✺
28.02.25	Troyes - Bastia	2:0 ✺
21.02.25	Paris FC - Troyes	1:0 ✺
14.02.25	Troyes - Lorient	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
20.12.24	Troyes - Metz	3:0
French Ligue 2
28.09.24	Troyes - Metz	2:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Troyes - Metz	0:3
16.07.22	Metz - Troyes	4:0
French Ligue 1
06.02.22	Troyes - Metz	0:0
12.09.21	Metz - Troyes	0:2
Club Friendly
28.07.21	Troyes - Metz	1:2

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