Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 25

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Souifi A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Pau		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.05	Watch
	2.85	3.6	2.25
	3	3.55	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.63	2.2
	3.14	3.59	2.14	Watch
	3	3.4	2.1
	3.06	3.73	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.81)	3.57 ↓ (3.72)	2.15 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
30.7%

Draw
26%

Saint-Étienne
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

25.1%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

24.4%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Pau - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 50%). Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Raveyre N. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 97. Meddah D. 23. Briancon A. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 3. Kalulu J. 84. Touzghar R. 21. Beusnard S. 20. Anziani J. 17. Sissoko O. 10. Versini G.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 39. Pedro K. 26. Le Cardinal J. 3. Nade M. 11. Old B. 14. Kante A. 10. Tardieu F. 7. Cardona I. 20. Boakye A. 22. Davitashvili Z. 9. Stassin L.
Substitutes
14. Bobichon A. 9. Dong K. 6. Fall C. 26. Glossoa N. 4. Karamoko S. 18. Sadik O. 30. Salles E. (G)	19. Annan E. 8. Appiah D. 17. Duffus J. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 29. Moueffek A. 18. Soumahoro A.
Coaches
Debes T.	Montanier P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽, Cardona I. (A),
36', Boakye A. 🟨,
44', Meddah D. 🟨,
44', Touzghar R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Briancon A. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Stassin L. ⚽,
64', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
66', Cardona I. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
71', Anziani J. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
72', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
78', Touzghar R. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
78', Versini G. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
79', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 3, Duffus J. ⚽, Boakye A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Pau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Glossoa N. (Injury) Sadik O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Inactive) El Jamali N. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Inactive) Jaber M. (Injury) Lamba C. (Injury) N'Guessan D. (Inactive) Traore L. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

St Etienne: 56.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	19:8	11	16
10	Pau FC	7	2	2	3	6:6	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
21.02.26	Troyes - Pau	4:3 ✺
13.02.26	Pau - Boulogne	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Red Star - Pau	0:3 ✺
30.01.26	Laval - Pau	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Pau - Grenoble	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWT
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
21.02.26	Saint-Étienne - Laval	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Guingamp - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Saint-Étienne - Boulogne	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Reims - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
28.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Pau	6:0
23.01.24	Pau - Saint-Étienne	0:1
25.11.23	Saint-Étienne - Pau	1:2
25.02.23	Saint-Étienne - Pau	2:0
05.09.22	Pau - Saint-Étienne	2:2

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