Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 21

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Asia	beIN Sports MENA French 1
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Saint-Étienne		Boulogne

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	5	Watch
	1.55	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.55	4.51	5.52
	1.53	4.46	5.33	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.54	4.3	5.39	Watch
	1.54	4.25	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.52)	4.27 ↓ (4.4)	5.25 ↓ (5.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
60.5%

Draw
21.8%

Boulogne
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

21.3%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

20.4%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Boulogne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boulogne than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Saint Étienne - Boulogne Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Boulogne will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 35.2% – 92%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Saint-Étienne (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 13. Ferreira J. 39. Pedro K. 3. Nade M. 11. Old B. 29. Moueffek A. 10. Tardieu F. 28. Miladinovic I. 7. Cardona I. 9. Stassin L. 20. Boakye A.	99. Noukeu B. (G) 18. Thiam D. 25. Gourville S. 5. Zohore N. (C) 12. Boyer J. 14. Bultel J. 10. El Farissi A. 22. Duflos S. 19. Binet N. 23. Fatar N. 9. Lecolier M.
Substitutes
19. Annan E. 8. Appiah D. 22. Davitashvili Z. 17. Duffus J. 31. El Jamali N. 36. Eymard P. 1. Maubleu B. (G)	17. Fatou C. 16. Kone I. (G) 77. Kouassi E. 90. Martin J. 28. Paillard S. 15. Pinot A. 21. Platret A.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Dagneaux F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Lecolier M. ⚽, El Farissi A. (A),
16', Ferreira J. 🟨,
26', Ferreira J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cardona I. ↓, Davitashvili Z. ↑,
46', Miladinovic I. ↓, El Jamali N. ↑,
50', El Farissi A. 🟨,
61', Boakye A. 🟨,
65', Binet N. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
73', El Farissi A. ↓, Platret A. ↑,
74', Lecolier M. ↓, Fatou C. ↑,
74', Moueffek A. ↓, Appiah D. ↑,
74', Stassin L. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,
84', Old B. ↓, Eymard P. ↑,
88', Fatar N. ↓, Paillard S. ↑,
89', Bultel J. ↓, Pinot A. ↑,
90+4', Fatou C. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Boulogne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Saint-Étienne is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Inactive) Davitashvili Z. (Inactive) Ekwah P. (Inactive) N'Guessan D. (Inactive) Traore L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Boulogne: Boiteau L. (Inactive) Capuano G. (Knee Injury) Mpembele Boula E. (Inactive) Raillot L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Saint-Étienne: Jaber M. (Injury) Lamba C. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

St Etienne: 56.34% Boulogne: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	19:8	11	16
17	Boulogne	7	0	5	2	3:5	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
24.01.26	Reims - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Saint-Étienne - Clermont	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Le Mans - Saint-Étienne	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Nice - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWTLT
- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
24.01.26	Red Star - Boulogne	2:2 ✺
16.01.26	Boulogne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Guingamp - Boulogne	3:0 ✺
15.12.25	Boulogne - Troyes	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Clermont - Boulogne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.08.25	Boulogne - Saint-Étienne	0:1
Coupe De France
03.03.15	Boulogne - Saint-Étienne	1:2 penalties

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