Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.65
	2.42	2.88	3.25	Watch
	2.47	2.98	3.4
	2.47	2.82	3.41	Watch
	2.4	2.75	3.25
	2.47	2.94	3.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.64)	2.89 ↓ (3.07)	3.23 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
38.1%

Draw
32.7%

Corinthians
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

30.8%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

32.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Peñarol de Montevideo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Corinthians will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 4. Gularte E. 3. Lemos M. 15. Olivera M. (C) 21. Jesus Trindade 13. Darias E. 32. Umpierrez L. 93. Laxalt D. 23. Togni G. 19. Arezo M.	1. Hugo Souza (G) 20. Milans P. 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 26. Angileri F. 29. Allan 49. Andre 37. Kaio Cesar 23. Pereira M. 52. Labyad Z. 18. Pedro Raul
Substitutes
22. Alvez F. 77. Angulo L. 18. Barbas G. 36. Barboza B. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 11. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 5. Remedi E. 14. Rodriguez K.	5. Andre Ramalho 7. Breno Bidon 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 8. Garro R. 56. Gui Negao 51. Kaue (G) 77. Lingard J. 2. Matheuzinho 14. Raniele 9. Yuri Alberto
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Olivera M. ⚽, Jesus Trindade (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Gularte E. ↓, Alvez F. ↑,
60', Darias E. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Labyad Z. ⚽,
71', Alvez F. ↓, Barboza B. ↑,
71', Arezo M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
71', Laxalt D. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
73', Pereira M. ↓, Garro R. ↑,
74', Pedro Raul ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
74', Labyad Z. ↓, Lingard J. ↑,
84', Kaio Cesar ↓, Dieguinho ↑,

Preview

Corinthians is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Peñarol: Angulo L. (Injury) Cabrera J. (Inactive) Darias E. (Inactive) Fernandez L. (Injury) Ferreira L. (Yellow Cards) Gonzalez F. (Inactive) Gularte E. (Inactive) Herrera N. (Injury)

There will not play in Corinthians: Charles Rigon (Heel Injury) Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Kayke (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Peñarol: Remedi E. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Corinthians: 4.57%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
11.05.26	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Platense - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWTTL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Corinthians - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians	4:0
29.04.21	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2

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