Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Paramount+, Sky+, TV Globo, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente Santa Fe		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.8	2.5	Watch
	2.87	3.2	2.45
	3.15	2.78	2.52	Watch
	3.38	2.88	2.59
	3.25	2.91	2.49	Watch
	3.3	2.63	2.45	Watch
	3.57	2.8	2.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.9)	2.86 ↓ (3.16)	2.49 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
28.9%

Draw
33.1%

Corinthians
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30.2%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	61.5%	30.8%

Independiente Santa Fe - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 16. Torres D. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 19. Bustos N. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H. (C)	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 49. Andre 14. Raniele 7. Breno Bidon 8. Garro R. (C) 77. Lingard J. 9. Yuri Alberto
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 12. Asprilla W. (G) 2. Juan Quintero 5. Melendez J. 22. Mosquera E. 77. Obrian J. 14. Palacios L. 40. Palacios M. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 7. Torres J. 20. Velasquez Y. 10. Zapata A.	5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 55. Machado I. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.
Coaches
Repetto P.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Olivera E. 🟨,
44', Perlaza Perea Y. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
57', Olivera E. ↓, Scarpeta Silgado I. R. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Rodallega H. ⚽, Obrian J. (A),
65', Rodallega H. 🟨,
75', Andre ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
79', Fernandez O. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
79', Palacios H. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
79', Toscano Bassa K. D. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
81', Raniele ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
87', Breno Bidon ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
87', Yuri Alberto ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Gustavo Henrique ⚽, Matheuzinho (A),
90+5', Zapata A. 🟨,

Preview

Santa Fe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Corinthians is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Santa Fe: Lovera M. (Injury) Murillo E. (Injury) Puerta M. (Inactive) Velasquez Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Corinthians: Charles Rigon (Heel Injury) Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Kayke (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Santa Fe: Fagundez F. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Santa Fe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Corinthians: 4.57%

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Inter Bogotá	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Platense - Independiente Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Cúcuta Deportivo	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Corinthians - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWWL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vitória Salvador - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Corinthians - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0
06.04.16	Independiente Santa Fe - Corinthians	1:1
02.03.16	Corinthians - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0

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