Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 32

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)

Referee: Jones J. A. (Wal)


	Aberystwyth Town		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.33	1.41
	6.2	4.5	1.44
	6.56	4.55	1.43
	6.72	4.51	1.44	Watch
	6.5	4.33	1.44
	7	4.65	1.38
	6.2	4.5	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.42 ↑ (5.86)	4.48 ↓ (5.05)	1.43 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
14.4%

Draw
20.7%

Gap Connahs Quay
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

18.3%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

17.7%

68.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Gap Connahs Quay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Aberystwyth Town - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Osment S. (G) 4. Bradford L. 28. Darlington A. 7. Evans J. 11. Hartley Z. 8. Lewis I. 10. Owen J. 27. Patterson R. 23. Sharif A. 6. Thorn J. 2. Walsh L.	31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 11. Bratley C. 2. Disney J. 10. Durrant S. 6. Edwards K. 17. Hughes R. 3. Marriott Ch. 5. Nash B. 22. Poole D. 4. Roberts D. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
26. Cline C. 22. Dafis G. 15. Duggan I. 17. Huxley C. 1. Jones D. (G) 12. Mason T.	46. Barnes B. 89. Foster R. 42. Morris H. 12. Mwandwe L. 20. Rushton J. (G) 21. Williams A.
Coaches
Corbisiero A.	Paynter B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Evans J. ↓, Dafis G. ↑,
21', 0 - 1, Hughes R. ⚽,
40', Poole D. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
45+3', Marriott Ch. ↓, Wright O. ↑,
45+4', 1 - 1, Lewis I. ⚽,
45+6', Roberts D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Woodcock M. ↓, Foster R. ↑,
46', Sharif A. ↓, Huxley C. ↑,
46', Osment S. ↓, Jones D. ↑,
59', Williams A. ↓, Mwandwe L. ↑,
66', Darlington A. ↓, Diboe C. ↑,
71', Hartley Z. ↓, Mason T. ↑,
87', Disney J. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 1.

Aberystwyth is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Connahs Quay is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Connahs Quay is absolute favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 17:45 (average 0.9:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Aberystwyth won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:21 (average 1.3:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
12.04.25	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
28.03.25	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	1:2 ✺
21.03.25	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
11.03.25	Barry Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLL
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.04.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0 ✺
21.03.25	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
15.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Llanelli	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Flint Town United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
07.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0
Welsh League Cup
22.10.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	1:2
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.10.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0
16.08.24	Aberystwyth Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1
06.10.23	Aberystwyth Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1
18.08.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	4:0
20.12.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0

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