Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 11

Date: 30 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Minelli D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Cittadella

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3	3.1
	2.25	3.05	3.35
	2.43	2.9	3.1
	2.56	2.94	3.38
	2.2	3.1	3.4
	2.38	3.13	3.13	Watch
	2.42	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.27)	3.02 ↓ (3.06)	3.21 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
39.4%

Draw
31.2%

Cittadella
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

30.1%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

29.4%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Cittadella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Perugia - Cittadella Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Cittadella will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (15.82%), has project points - 40, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cittadella has the most likely position - 16 (8.11%), has project points - 46, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (18%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 28, importance 45, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 0.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Cittadella could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Perugia will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Perugia won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
22.10.22	Reggina - Perugia	2:3 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
09.10.22	Como - Perugia	1:0 ✺
01.10.22	Perugia - Pisa	1:3 ✺
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLLL
- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
23.10.22	Palermo - Cittadella	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Torino - Cittadella	4:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cittadella - SPAL	0:0 ✺
08.10.22	Brescia - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
01.10.22	Cittadella - Ternana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
06.04.22	Cittadella - Perugia	0:0
27.11.21	Perugia - Cittadella	1:1
29.06.20	Cittadella - Perugia	2:0
09.11.19	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2
01.05.19	Perugia - Cittadella	0:0
23.12.18	Cittadella - Perugia	2:2
03.02.18	Perugia - Cittadella	1:3

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