Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Benevento

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	5.25	Watch
	1.66	3.8	4.8
	1.7	3.7	4.8
	1.67	4.01	5.51
	1.78	3.4	4.6
	1.66	3.86	5.1	Watch
	1.64	3.85	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.61)	3.8 ↓ (3.97)	5.01 ↓ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
56.3%

Draw
24.9%

Benevento
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23.9%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

24.3%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	20%	28%

Perugia - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Benevento will win (votes: 7 - 28%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Perugia has the most likely position - 18 (52.01%), project points - 38, currently - 36, a good chance of relegated (90%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Benevento has the most likely position - 20 (61.53%), project points - 36, currently - 35, already of relegated.

This event has small quality 26, small importance 21, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1.

Perugia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Benevento is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Perugia is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Perugia won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Venezia - Perugia	3:2 ✺
05.05.23	Perugia - Cagliari	0:5 ✺
30.04.23	SPAL - Perugia	1:1 ✺
22.04.23	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Genoa - Perugia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTTL
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Benevento - Modena	2:1 ✺
06.05.23	Cittadella - Benevento	3:1 ✺
01.05.23	Benevento - Parma	2:2 ✺
22.04.23	Palermo - Benevento	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Benevento - Reggina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2
26.02.22	Perugia - Benevento	0:1
03.10.21	Benevento - Perugia	0:0
03.03.20	Perugia - Benevento	1:2
19.10.19	Benevento - Perugia	1:0
06.04.19	Perugia - Benevento	2:4
24.11.18	Benevento - Perugia	2:1

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