Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS, Paramount+


	Phoenix Rising		Houston Dynamo

	1	X	2
	4	3.7	1.8	Watch
	4	3.6	1.7	Watch
	3.95	3.65	1.81
	4.88	3.86	1.78
	4.08	3.67	1.83	Watch
	4	3.5	1.73
	4.16	3.8	1.8	Watch
	3.95	3.65	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.13 ↑ (3.45)	3.68 ↑ (3.36)	1.78 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
22.5%

Draw
25.3%

Houston Dynamo
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

27%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

26%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Houston Dynamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Houston Dynamo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Phoenix Rising - Houston Dynamo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Houston will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Houston (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 34. Montgomery B. 6. Sainte C. F. 14. Cuello E. 8. Okello N. 17. Scearce J. 10. Avayevu H. 22. Johnson D. 9. Sacko I. 29. Formella D.	26. Gillingham B. (G) 36. Felipe Andrade 4. Bartlow E. 22. Ortiz P. 2. Escobar F. 20. Lodeiro N. 6. Artur 30. Junior Urso 16. Duenas E. 17. Segal G. 27. Kowalczyk S.
Substitutes
15. Araneda A. 23. Flood R. 13. Henry T. (G) 38. Kowall C. 44. Ping J. 19. Rivera D. 88. Rizzo P.	24. Awodesu F. 31. Bond J. (G) 9. Lingr O. 21. McGlynn J. 10. Ponce E. 35. Raines B. 5. Steres D.
Coaches
Kah P.	Olsen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Felipe Andrade ⚽, Lodeiro N. (A),
24', Johnson D. 🟨,
45+2', Gillingham B. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Formella D. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ortiz P. ↓, Awodesu F. ↑,
50', Smith C. 🟨,
52', Kowalczyk S. 🟨,
56', Duenas E. 🟨,
63', Duenas E. ↓, McGlynn J. ↑,
63', Segal G. ↓, Raines B. ↑,
63', Artur ↓, Ponce E. ↑,
64', Montgomery B. 🟨,
65', Cuello E. 🟨,
69', Johnson D. ↓, Rivera D. ↑,
70', Okello N. 🟨,
81', Lodeiro N. ↓, Lingr O. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 3)
91', Cuello E. ↓, Flood R. ↑,
91', Felipe Andrade ↓, Steres D. ↑,
99', 1 - 2, McGlynn J. ⚽, Raines B. (A),
105', Okello N. ↓, Ping J. ↑,
106', Ping J. 🟨,
112', 1 - 3, Ponce E. ⚽, Lingr O. (A),
115', 1 - 4, Kowalczyk S. ⚽, Lingr O. (A),
116', Sainte C. F. ↓, Kowall C. ↑,
116', Montgomery B. ↓, Araneda A. ↑,
117', Ponce E. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Houston is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Phoenix Rising won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
03.05.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Phoenix Rising - San Antonio	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Phoenix Rising - Sacramento Republic	2:2 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Tulsa - Phoenix Rising	1:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	Phoenix Rising - Detroit City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTWL
- Houston Dynamo
MLS
03.05.25	Los Angeles - Houston Dynamo	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Houston Dynamo - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Houston Dynamo - Colorado Rapids	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Houston Dynamo	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Houston Dynamo - Los Angeles	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Visit Tucson Sun Cup
21.02.18	Houston Dynamo - Phoenix Rising	1:0

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