Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 39

Date: 25 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Plymouth Argyle		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5
	1.42	4.75	6.5
	1.45	4.5	7.5
	1.43	4.79	7.8
	1.4	4.4	7.5
	1.41	4.8	7.2	Watch
	1.41	4.8	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.52)	4.68 ↑ (4.3)	7.26 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
66.8%

Draw
20.2%

Bristol Rovers
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

21.4%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

21%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Plymouth Argyle's performance.

Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Plymouth Argyle - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Plymouth will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 4 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Plymouth: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 15).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 1 (55.86%), project points - 98, currently - 92, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), a good chance of promoted (93%), a good chance of win league (56%).

Bristol Rovers has the most likely position - 15 (27.81%), project points - 55, currently - 52, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 22, importance 50, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 3.

Plymouth is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bristol Rovers is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Plymouth is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Plymouth to win the game is with odds 1.39.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 23-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
22.04.23	Plymouth Argyle - Cambridge United	3:1 ✺
18.04.23	Shrewsbury Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
10.04.23	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
07.04.23	Morecambe - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWLW
- Bristol Rovers
English League One
22.04.23	Port Vale - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
18.04.23	Bristol Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Bristol Rovers - Derby County	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Fleetwood Town - Bristol Rovers	1:2 ✺
07.04.23	Bristol Rovers - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
10.01.23	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	0:2
English League One
22.10.22	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol Rovers	2:1 penalties
English League One
20.03.21	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol Rovers	2:0
12.12.20	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	3:0
English FA Cup
17.12.19	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol Rovers	0:1
01.12.19	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	1:1

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