Match Info

Polish Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Grodzisk Mazowiecki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	3.35	3.45	2.02	Watch
	3.48	3.6	1.98
	4.95	3.41	1.72	Watch
	3.56	3.35	2.04	Watch
	3.35	3.21	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.35)	3.4 ↑ (3.21)	1.94 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
24.9%

Draw
27.3%

Lechia Gdańsk
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

27.8%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

26%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Lechia will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 50%). Lechia (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 21. Los K. (C) 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 30. Barnowski D. 13. Lis J. 77. Adkonis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 7. Jedrasik J. 9. Gieroba S. 4. Korczakowski I.	18. Paulsen A. (G) 16. Jaunzems A. 15. Dyachuk M. 3. Olsson E. 33. Wojtowicz T. 79. Sezonienko K. 99. Neugebauer T. 5. Zhelizko I. (C) 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T. 72. Awad M.
Substitutes
19. Adamski R. 80. Glacel M. (G) 10. Jaron D. 11. Kargulewicz K. 27. Konstantyn J. 99. Noiszewski K. 52. Olewinski O. 71. Szczepaniak M. 20. Wypart O.	26. Brzek B. 21. Glogowski M. 10. Kapic R. 90. Kurminowski D. 11. Mena C. 80. Rodin M. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zhelizko I. ↓, Kapic R. ↑,
46', Staniszewski J. ↓, Noiszewski K. ↑,
46', Lis J. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Cirkovic A. ⚽,
58', Bobcek T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
61', Jedrasik J. ↓, Konstantyn J. ↑,
61', Gieroba S. ↓, Szczepaniak M. ↑,
80', Awad M. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
82', Dyachuk M. 🟨,
82', Korczakowski I. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
90', Neugebauer T. ↓, Szczepankiewicz B. ↑,
90', Sezonienko K. ↓, Brzek B. ↑,
90+2', Olsson E. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lechia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lechia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Including home match between the teams, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna	3:3 ✺
30.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Chrobry Głogów	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLTL
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
24.09.24	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 penalties

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