Match Info

POLAND: Division 2 - Round 32

Date: 13 May 2024, Monday


	Pogoń Siedlce		GKS Jastrzębie

	1	X	2
	1.47	4.2	5
	1.45	4.33	5.5
	1.5	4.4	5.85
	1.5	4.29	5.85
	1.4	4.2	5.5
	1.48	4.26	5.85	Watch
	1.47	4.5	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.77)	4.31 ↑ (3.75)	5.62 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Siedlce
62.4%

Draw
21.3%

GKS Jastrzębie
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

24.8%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

24.9%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pogoń Siedlce's performance.

GKS Jastrzębie has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and GKS Jastrzębie might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pogoń Siedlce that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Jastrzębie than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that GKS Jastrzębie could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Pogoń Siedlce - GKS Jastrzębie Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Pogoń Siedlce will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). GKS Jastrzębie will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Siedlce: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burek J. (G) 20. Bujalski C. 14. Burka D. 56. Demianiuk C. 31. Dzieciol E. 4. Misiak P. 10. Mis K. 9. Nowak D. 18. Pyrdol P. 16. Sinior J. 7. Szuprytowski D.	1. Drazik G. (G) 23. Araujo Guilherme J. L. 18. Bednarski M. 27. Borun B. 17. Fietz K. 20. Goluch S. 13. Iskra J. 47. Kargul-Grobla K. 7. Lech P. (C) 22. Matuszek S. 4. Rogala S.
Substitutes
23. Derlatka H. 55. Karwot M. 97. Kowynia J. (G) 11. Majewski M. 3. Majewski R. 21. Milasius T. 26. Okusami J. 91. Walczak T. 99. Wicenciak B.	5. Chmarek M. 8. Jadach K. 36. Kabala D. 11. Kiebzak S. 6. Maszkowski S. 66. Mucha K. 24. Szymczak D. 12. Trojanowski J. (G) 26. Ziewiec J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Matuszek S. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Szuprytowski D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 4)
50', Fietz K. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Mis K. ⚽,
56', Bednarski M. 🟨,
59', Goluch S. ↓, Chmarek M. ↑,
60', Kargul-Grobla K. ↓, Mucha K. ↑,
62', Mis K. ↓, Derlatka H. ↑,
63', Nowak D. ↓, Milasius T. ↑,
63', Bujalski C. ↓, Walczak T. ↑,
68', Iskra J. 🟨,
72', 2 - 1, Chmarek M. ⚽,
72', Matuszek S. ↓, Kabala D. ↑,
72', Borun B. ↓, Kiebzak S. ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Walczak T. ⚽,
76', 3 - 2, Chmarek M. ⚽,
80', Pyrdol P. ↓, Karwot M. ↑,
84', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Majewski M. ↑,
85', Lech P. ↓, Ziewiec J. ↑,
85', Chmarek M. 🟨,
89', Drazik G. 🟨,
90+2', Milasius T. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 3, Bednarski M. ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Pogoń Siedlce is Qualified for Division 1

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Pogoń Siedlce could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Pogoń Siedlce is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Pogoń Siedlce won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Pogoń Siedlce won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 2
05.05.24	Zagłębie 2 Lubin - Pogoń Siedlce	0:2 ✺
26.04.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Radunia Stężyca	0:3 ✺
19.04.24	Skra Częstochowa - Pogoń Siedlce	0:1 ✺
12.04.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Olimpia Grudziądz	0:0 ✺
05.04.24	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWTT
- GKS 1962 Jastrzębie
Polish Division 2
06.05.24	GKS Jastrzębie - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:4 ✺
27.04.24	GKS Jastrzębie - Zagłębie 2 Lubin	1:0 ✺
21.04.24	Radunia Stężyca - GKS Jastrzębie	3:0 ✺
14.04.24	GKS Jastrzębie - Skra Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
10.04.24	Lech Poznań 2 - GKS Jastrzębie	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
29.10.23	GKS Jastrzębie - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1
01.04.23	Pogoń Siedlce - GKS Jastrzębie	1:1
26.08.22	GKS Jastrzębie - Pogoń Siedlce	3:1

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