Match Info

Division 1 - Round 9

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8 (Bytom)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Polonia Bytom		Ruch Chorzów

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.05
	2.80	3.40	2.20
	3	3.4	2.15
	3.12	3.55	2.28
	3.06	3.55	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.4	2.25
	2.96	3.25	2.17	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.6)	3.41 ↓ (3.51)	2.18 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Bytom
30.7%

Draw
27%

Ruch Chorzów
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

26.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

26%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Bytom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Polonia Bytom's form might have worsened.

Ruch Chorzów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Bytom than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (-4%)

Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Banasik W. (G) 77. Szymanski J. 30. Krzyzak O. 17. Wolkowicz K. 16. Stefanski P. 21. Kadziolka S. 8. Labojko M. 7. Zielinski L. 22. Orlik K. 9. Wojtyra K. 5. Mioc B.	44. Wrabel J. (G) 28. Lesniak-Paduch N. 24. Komor A. 17. Lukic A. (C) 3. del Moral A. 5. Rosol M. 7. Kristan J. 88. Rostek K. 6. Chrapek M. 21. Szwedzik P. 99. Coscia A.
Substitutes
13. Gajgier A. 36. Kondracki D. 25. Konieczny D. 4. Malachowski A. 40. Mazur K. (G) 10. Michalski K. 14. Szymusik G. 6. Wolski M. 26. Wziech M.	82. Bielecki J. (G) 11. Cieslak S. 15. Konczkowski M. 27. Laskowski K. 18. Nagamatsu S. 9. Pawlowski M. 8. Sikora P. 10. Sutherland T. 14. Wojcik F.
Coaches
Gerega K.	Fornalik W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Coscia A. 🟨,
41', Orlik K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rosol M. ↓, Nagamatsu S. ↑,
65', Stefanski P. ↓, Michalski K. ↑,
70', Szwedzik P. ↓, Laskowski K. ↑,
75', Orlik K. ↓, Wziech M. ↑,
80', Coscia A. ↓, Pawlowski M. ↑,
80', Rostek K. ↓, Sutherland T. ↑,
83', Zielinski L. ↓, Szymusik G. ↑,
89', Nagamatsu S. 🟨,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 16th in the Relegation ~ Division 2 and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Polonia Bytom won 0.

Polonia Bytom has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ruch Chorzów shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ruch Chorzów could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Polonia Bytom has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:19 (averaging 0.7:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Polonia Bytom against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 3:11 goals (averaging 0.6:2.2 per game).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Ruch Chorzow: 4.51% Polonia Bytom: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ruch Chorzow	9	3	3	3	9:11	-2	12
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	14:17	-3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Ruch Chorzów - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.4%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Bytom
Polish Cup
15.09.26	Widzew Łódź II - Polonia Bytom	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
11.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Polonia Bytom - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Bytom	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTTT
- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Division 1
12.09.26	Ruch Chorzów - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	3:3 ✺
07.09.26	Ruch Chorzów - Unia Skierniewice	3:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Lechia Zielona Góra - Ruch Chorzów	0:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
30.08.26	Chrobry Głogów - Ruch Chorzów	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Stal Rzeszów - Ruch Chorzów	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
08.03.26	Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów	0:1
Club Friendly
21.01.26	Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów	0:4
Polish Division 1
24.08.25	Ruch Chorzów - Polonia Bytom	1:1
Club Friendly
17.01.25	Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów	1:2
17.01.24	Ruch Chorzów - Polonia Bytom	1:1
14.01.23	Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów	1:3
Polish Division 3 - Group III
24.04.21	Ruch Chorzów - Polonia Bytom	2:1

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