Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C


	Carmarthen Town		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	4.35	3.6	1.65
	4.47	3.61	1.72
	4.13	3.57	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↓ (4.8)	3.59 ↓ (4.18)	1.67 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
20.9%

Draw
25.1%

Colwyn Bay
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

21.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

22.1%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Colwyn Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colwyn Bay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colwyn Bay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carmarthen Town - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Davies J. ⚽,
23', 0 - 2, Forde S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 0 - 3, Robles L. ⚽,
80', 1 - 3, Thomas L. ⚽,

Preview

Carmarthen Town is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Colwyn Bay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Carmarthen Town may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Colwyn Bay is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
14.11.25	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Ynyshir Albions - Carmarthen Town	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTWWW
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.11.25	Haverfordwest County - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Llanelli	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Barry Town United	1:4 ✺
25.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Colwyn Bay	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Colwyn Bay - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWT

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