Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Port Vale		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.3	5.5
	1.77	3.3	4.8
	1.8	3.5	4.7
	1.75	3.25	5
	1.81	3.5	5.09
	1.78	3.3	4.8
	1.82	3.6	5.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.89)	3.39 ↓ (3.41)	4.99 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
53.2%

Draw
27.9%

Crawley Town
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.6%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

19.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Port Vale that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crawley Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Port Vale - Crawley Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Port Vale has the most likely position - 11 (17.31%), has project points - 69, has currently - 50, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (24%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Crawley has the most likely position - 13 (18.48%), has project points - 60, has currently - 45, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 10, small importance 12, small match rating 11. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Crawley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Port Vale have a series of guest games.

Recently Crawley have a series of home games.

In this match Port Vale is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League Two
05.03.22	Colchester United - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
01.03.22	Harrogate Town - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
26.02.22	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
22.02.22	Rochdale - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
19.02.22	Tranmere Rovers - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTWTT
- Crawley Town
English League Two
08.03.22	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:2 ✺
05.03.22	Crawley Town - Scunthorpe United	0:0 ✺
01.03.22	Crawley Town - Oldham Athletic	2:2 ✺
26.02.22	Crawley Town - Forest Green Rovers	2:1 ✺
12.02.22	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.10.21	Crawley Town - Port Vale	1:4
27.03.21	Crawley Town - Port Vale	1:3
12.09.20	Port Vale - Crawley Town	2:0
14.12.19	Crawley Town - Port Vale	0:0
19.01.19	Crawley Town - Port Vale	0:1
18.08.18	Port Vale - Crawley Town	1:0
07.04.18	Port Vale - Crawley Town	1:2

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