Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY

Date: 10 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Miles J. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Newcastle United U21

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	9
	1.22	6	10	Watch
	1.23	5.99	10.47
	1.2	5.8	10
	1.23	6	9.8
	1.25	5.8	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.62)	5.89 ↑ (4.2)	9.68 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
74.9%

Draw
15.6%

Newcastle United U21
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

21.6%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

20.9%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Port Vale's performance.

Newcastle United U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle United U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Port Vale that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United U21 than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle United U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Port Vale - Newcastle United U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: Port Vale will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Leutwiler J. (G) 23. Shorrock J. 16. Lowe J. 27. Debrah J. 7. Clark M. 8. Garrity B. (C) 24. Walters R. 21. Plant J. 10. Chislett E. 29. Wilson J. 19. Massey G.	84. Harris A. (G) 42. Wiggett C. 65. Thompson C. 38. Savage R. 46. Scott J. 47. Miley J. (C) 37. Carlyon N. 34. De Bolle L. 63. Parkinson B. 43. Stephenson D. 49. Diallo A.
Substitutes
5. Balmer K. 26. Brazier L. 99. Buah A. 25. Dipepa B. 1. Ripley C. (G) 4. Sang T. 6. Smith N.	72. Charlton D. 57. Crossley K. 58. Huntley J. 91. Jones T. (G) 55. Ndiweni M. 79. Powell R. 64. Stanton E.
Coaches
Crosby A.	Dawson B.

Preview

Port Vale is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Newcastle U21 is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Newcastle U21 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Port Vale is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
07.10.23	Portsmouth - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
03.10.23	Bristol Rovers - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
30.09.23	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.09.23	Port Vale - Sutton United	2:1 ✺
English League One
23.09.23	Cambridge United - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWT
- Newcastle United U21
English Premier League Cup
07.10.23	Newcastle United U21 - Fleetwood Town U21	2:2 ✺
English Premier League 2
29.09.23	Newcastle United U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	1:1 ✺
23.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion U21 - Newcastle United U21	1:1 ✺
English Premier League Cup
13.09.23	Huddersfield Town U21 - Newcastle United U21	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Wrexham - Newcastle United U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
12.11.19	Port Vale - Newcastle United U21	2:1

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