Match Info

USL League One

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portland Hearts of Pine		Spokane Velocity

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3	2.52
	2.62	3.02	2.64
	2.73	2.96	2.73	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.6
	2.57	3	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.59)	2.96 ↓ (3.04)	2.61 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
34.7%

Draw
30.6%

Spokane Velocity
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

29.6%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

30.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Spokane Velocity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Spokane Velocity aligns with the current prediction.

Portland Hearts of Pine - Spokane Velocity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 6. Mohamed M. 44. Faye S. 66. Green K. 99. Drack J. 11. Kamara J. 22. Evans B. 18. Barbosa D. 7. Varela W. 9. Camara A. 10. Wright O. (C)	1. Lewis S. (G) 4. Fitch S. 5. Margvelashvili G. 12. Miller C. 33. Mensah M. 77. Lewis A. 6. Fernandez C. (C) 7. Gallardo J. 11. John-Brown S. 17. Alexandre M. 9. Brett N.
Substitutes
25. Espinosa E. 35. Huck T. 98. Kidd M. 70. Kunga L. 27. Mensah E. 23. Oladapo K. (G) 41. Scarlett Z.	37. Buck J. 20. Covi I. 10. Gil L. 14. Hernandez M. 13. Opara L. 8. Vinyals N. 18. Waldeck D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Fernandez C. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, John-Brown S. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Barbosa D. ↓, Kidd M. ↑,
61', Gallardo J. ↓, Gil L. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Camara A. ⚽, Wright O. (A),
71', Varela W. 🟨,
72', Varela W. ↓, Huck T. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Kamara J. ⚽, Kidd M. (A),
85', Mensah M. ↓, Waldeck D. ↑,
86', Fernandez C. ↓, Hernandez M. ↑,
86', Fitch S. ↓, Vinyals N. ↑,
88', Camara A. ↓, Scarlett Z. ↑,
88', Green K. ↓, Kunga L. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent performances by Hearts of Pine have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Spokane is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hearts of Pine won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Hearts of Pine won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Spokane Velocity	27	14	5	8	41:36	5	47
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43:53	-10	31

Last Results with these Odds

Spokane Velocity - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 35.66%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
23.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Greenville Triumph	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
16.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Rhode Island	2:1 ✺
USL League One
09.05.26	Union Omaha - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Fort Wayne - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - New York Cosmos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWTLW
- Spokane Velocity
USL League One
24.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Sarasota Paradise	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
17.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Las Vegas Lights	1:0 ✺
USL League One
10.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Naples	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Corpus Christi - Spokane Velocity	0:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Spokane Velocity	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
09.11.25	Spokane Velocity - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:2 penalties
21.10.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Spokane Velocity	6:1
05.04.25	Spokane Velocity - Portland Hearts of Pine	0:0

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