Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 24 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, Supersport Action
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Moja TV
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 2
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	RTL, RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 256
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 6
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7, Blue Zoom, RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Porto		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	7
	1.4	5	7
	1.41	5.05	7.6	Watch
	1.41	5.23	7.7
	1.42	5	6.94	Watch
	1.4	4.8	7.5
	1.45	5.35	7.28
	1.41	5.1	7.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.75)	5.1 ↑ (3.85)	7.34 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
68%

Draw
18.9%

Hoffenheim
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

24.3%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

23.2%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hoffenheim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hoffenheim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.3%	6.8%	6.8%

Porto - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: Porto will win (63 of 73 users predict this - 86.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.41% – 94.19%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 24. Perez N. 3. Djalo T. 74. Moura F. 22. Varela A. 16. Nico 17. Ivan Jaime 11. Pepê 9. Samu 13. Galeno	1. Baumann O. (C) 35. Arthur Chaves 16. Stach A. 34. Nsoki S. 15. Gendrey V. 11. Grillitsch F. 7. Bischof T. 22. Prass A. 27. Kramaric A. 23. Hlozek A. 29. Bruun Larsen J.
Substitutes
70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 6. Eustaquio S. 20. Franco A. 8. Grujic M. 23. Joao Mario 86. Mora R. 21. Navarro F. 97. Pedro J. 15. Sousa V. 10. Vieira F.	25. Akpoguma K. 10. Berisha M. 4. Drexler T. 2. Hranac R. 19. Jurasek D. 37. Philipp L. (G) 18. Samassekou D. 26. Tabakovic H. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Bruno V.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', Nsoki S. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Djalo T. ⚽, Nico (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Perez N. 🟨,
59', Ivan Jaime ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
70', Hlozek A. ↓, Tabakovic H. ↑,
70', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Berisha M. ↑,
70', Grillitsch F. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Samu ⚽,
77', Varela A. 🟨,
79', Arthur Chaves ↓, Drexler T. ↑,
84', Nico 🟨,
84', Djalo T. ↓, Pedro J. ↑,
84', Prass A. ↓, Jurasek D. ↑,
90+2', Pepê ↓, Borges G. ↑,
90+2', Samu ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,

Preview

Porto is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Hoffenheim is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Porto is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Navarro F. (Muscle Injury) Zaidu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Injury) Becker F. O. (Knee Injury) Jurasek D. (Broken Hand) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Promel G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Berisha M. (Injury) Geiger D. (Back Injury) Grillitsch F. (Injury) Kaderabek P. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Sintrense - Porto	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.10.24	Porto - Braga	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
03.10.24	Porto - Manchester United	3:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
29.09.24	Porto - Arouca	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Bodø Glimt - Porto	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWTWL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Hoffenheim - Bochum	3:1 ✺
06.10.24	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
03.10.24	Hoffenheim - Dynamo Kyiv	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.09.24	Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Midtjylland - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWLT

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