Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.8	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.55	Watch
	2.08	3.91	3.38
	1.98	3.93	3.48	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.4
	1.98	3.86	3.75	Watch
	2	3.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.91)	3.8 ↓ (4.06)	3.54 (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
48%

Draw
25.1%

Hoffenheim
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

23.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

23.8%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.1%	17.1%	45.7%

Stuttgart - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 13 - 37.1%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 16 - 45.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 29.2% – 62.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Hoffenheim (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Hoffenheim (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Hoffenheim (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Hoffenheim (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 29. Jeltsch F. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 8. Tomas T. 28. Nartey N. 18. Leweling J. 26. Undav D.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 6. Promel G. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 22. Prass A. 19. Lemperle T. 11. Asllani F.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 10. Fuhrich C. 3. Hendriks R. 45. Jovanovic L. 15. Stenzel P. 20. Stergiou L.	9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 15. Gendrey V. 23. Hlozek A. 5. Kabak O. 27. Kramaric A. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Stiller A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jeltsch F. ↓, Al Dakhil A. ↑,
48', Karazor A. 🟨,
60', Hranac R. 🟨,
65', Asllani F. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
66', Hajdari A. 🟨,
68', Tomas T. 🟨,
69', Tomas T. ↓, Fuhrich C. ↑,
73', Hajdari A. ↓, Kabak O. ↑,
88', Prass A. ↓, Gendrey V. ↑,
88', Lemperle T. ↓, Hlozek A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 1.

Recent performances by Stuttgart have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hoffenheim is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stuttgart could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Assignon L. (Shoulder Injury) Demirovic E. (Foot Injury) Diehl J. (Ankle Injury) El Khannouss B. (International duty) Jaquez L. (Muscle Injury) Keitel Y. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Machida K. (Knee Injury) Toure B. (International duty)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 38:32. (average 1.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.3:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Hoffenheim - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.84%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Werder Bremen - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Stuttgart - Maccabi Tel Aviv	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Stuttgart - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Bochum - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Hoffenheim - Augsburg	3:0 ✺
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.02.25	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	1:1
06.10.24	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	1:1
16.03.24	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	0:3
28.10.23	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	2:3
27.05.23	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	1:1
24.01.23	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	2:2
25.02.22	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	2:1

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