Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Asr TV, Meraj Sport
Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Grandstand ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Play Sports 1, VOOsport World 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 3
Germany	RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 5, Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Iran	Aio Sport
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254, TV8
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Q Sport Arena, Q Sport
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Fox Sports
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 3
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	StarHub TV+
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, Premier Sports 1 ROI, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports, TNT Sports 2
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea Extra, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, VIX App


	Porto		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.75
	2.4	3.5	2.8
	2.5	3.6	2.75
	2.46	3.6	2.86
	2.45	3.61	2.86	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.88
	2.58	3.64	2.72
	2.45	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.75)	3.56 ↑ (3.35)	2.81 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
38.9%

Draw
26.9%

Manchester United
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

27.7%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28.4%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.4%	13.8%	50.8%

Porto - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 23 - 35.9%). Man Utd will win (votes: 32 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 14.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 37.8% – 62.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 23. Joao Mario 97. Pedro J. 24. Perez N. 74. Moura F. 16. Nico 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 11. Pepê 9. Omorodion S. 13. Galeno	24. Onana A. (G) 3. Mazraoui N. 4. de Ligt M. 6. Martinez Li. 20. Dalot D. 18. Casemiro 14. Eriksen C. 16. Diallo A. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Rashford M. 9. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 3. Djalo T. 52. Fernandes M. 20. Franco A. 8. Grujic M. 27. Gul D. 17. Ivan Jaime 86. Mora R. 15. Sousa V. 10. Vieira F.	21. Antony 1. Bayindir A. (G) 43. Collyer T. 35. Evans J. 17. Garnacho A. 44. Gore D. 22. Heaton T. (G) 2. Lindelof V. 5. Maguire H. 25. Ugarte M. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Bruno V.	ten Hag E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Rashford M. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Hojlund R. ⚽, Rashford M. (A),
27', 1 - 2, Pepê ⚽,
31', Aghehowa S. 🟨,
32', Fernandes B. 🟨,
34', 2 - 2, Aghehowa S. ⚽, Joao Mario (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rashford M. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
50', 3 - 2, Aghehowa S. ⚽, Pepê (A),
62', Pepê ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
68', Hojlund R. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
68', Diallo A. ↓, Antony ↑,
77', Aghehowa S. ↓, Grujic M. ↑,
77', Eustaquio S. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
78', Joao Mario ↓, Gul D. ↑,
79', Martinez Li. ↓, Maguire H. ↑,
79', de Ligt M. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
81', Fernandes B. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 3, Maguire H. ⚽, Eriksen C. (A),
90+2', Varela A. ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Porto: Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Navarro F. (Injury) Zaidu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Malacia T. (Knee Injury) Shaw L. (Health problems) Yoro L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Maguire H. (Knock) Mainoo K. (Injury) Mount M. (Head Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
29.09.24	Porto - Arouca	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Bodø Glimt - Porto	3:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
21.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:3 ✺
15.09.24	Porto - Farense	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWWL
- Manchester United
English Premier League
29.09.24	Manchester United - Tottenham Hotspur	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Manchester United - Twente	1:1 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.24	Crystal Palace - Manchester United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.24	Manchester United - Barnsley	7:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.09.24	Southampton - Manchester United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTTWW

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