Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hoffenheim		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	1.48	5	5.75	Watch
	1.49	4.8	5.5
	1.49	4.7	5.9	Watch
	1.51	5.2	5.86
	1.5	4.75	5.86	Watch
	1.44	4.6	5	Watch
	1.52	5.23	5.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.56)	4.9 ↑ (4.61)	5.69 ↑ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
63.8%

Draw
19.4%

Werder Bremen
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

20.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

19.9%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.5%	12.5%	10%

Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 31 - 77.5%). Werder will win (votes: 4 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 64.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hoffenheim (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 27. Kramaric A. 11. Asllani F. 29. Toure B. 19. Lemperle T.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 5. Pieper A. 32. Friedl M. (C) 2. Deman O. 14. Lynen S. 11. Njinmah J. 6. Stage J. 18. Puertas C. 20. Schmid R. 29. Musah S.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 23. Hlozek A. 2. Hranac R. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G.	31. Coulibaly K. 24. Covic P. 17. Grull M. 25. Kolke M. (G) 7. Mbangula S. 19. Milosevic J. 23. Schmidt I. 4. Stark N. 39. Wober M.
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Sugawara Y. 🟥,
12', Musah S. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
26', 1 - 0, Toure B. ⚽, Kramaric A. (A),
41', Puertas C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Toure B. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
66', Bernardo 🟨,
71', Stage J. ↓, Mbangula S. ↑,
71', Schmid R. ↓, Grull M. ↑,
71', Bernardo ↓, Hranac R. ↑,
71', Lemperle T. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
81', Schmidt I. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
88', Njinmah J. 🟨,
88', Thioune D. 🟨,
89', Kramaric A. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
89', Asllani F. ↓, Hlozek A. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 4.

Hoffenheim has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Werder is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Hoffenheim is the team to beat.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Werder: Bittencourt L. (Thigh Injury) Hein K. (Hand Injury) Malatini J. (Ankle Injury) Topp K. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Werder: Agu F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.9:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.45% Werder Bremen: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	3:3 ✺
25.04.26	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Augsburg - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWTL
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Werder Bremen - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	Stuttgart - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:3
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:1
German Bundesliga
16.02.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	1:3
29.09.24	Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen	3:4
03.03.24	Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen	2:1
07.10.23	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	2:3

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