Match Info

Date: 9 March 2022, Wednesday


	Porto		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.7	3.8
	1.93	3.5	3.9
	1.98	3.6	3.9
	1.94	3.6	3.75
	1.96	3.74	3.98
	2	3.4	3.8
	1.97	3.7	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.01)	3.61 ↑ (3.54)	3.88 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
48.9%

Draw
26.5%

Lyon
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

26.8%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

18%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lyon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	9.4%	8.2%

Porto - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: Porto will win (140 of 170 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.62% – 88.08%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Porto was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (64%), has a chance of semis (38%), has a chance of final (21%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Lyon was already of round of 16, has a chance of qtrs (36%), has a chance of semis (17%), has a small chance of final (7%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has big quality 75, very big importance 93, big match rating 84. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Porto is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lyon is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lyon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Porto have a series of guest games.

Porto will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Porto won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Porto won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
06.03.22	Paços de Ferreira - Porto	2:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
02.03.22	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.02.22	Porto - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.02.22	Lazio - Porto	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
20.02.22	Moreirense - Porto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTTW
- Olympique Lyon
French National 1 - Group C
05.03.22	Lyon - Lyon La Duchère	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.03.22	Lorient - Lyon	1:4 ✺
27.02.22	Lyon - Lille	0:1 ✺
19.02.22	Lens - Lyon	1:1 ✺
French National 1 - Group C
19.02.22	Monaco II - Lyon	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.07.21	Porto - Lyon	5:3
04.08.12	Porto - Lyon	0:0

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