What is the expert prediction for Porto vs Midtjylland?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Porto vs Midtjylland. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Porto vs Midtjylland Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, December 12, 2024)

Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Stavrev A. (Mkd)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 5
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 16, Blue Sport 16, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Porto		Midtjylland

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.5	11
	1.28	6	9.75
	1.28	6	11
	1.29	6.18	10.58
	1.27	6.11	10.25	Watch
	1.25	5.8	11
	1.28	6.71	12.1
	1.28	6	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.4)	6.04 ↑ (4.3)	10.84 ↑ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
75.3%

Draw
15.9%

Midtjylland
8.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

21%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

20.3%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.

Midtjylland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Midtjylland might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Midtjylland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	4.8%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: Porto will win (40 of 42 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 24. Perez N. 4. Otavio 13. Galeno 10. Vieira F. 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 19. Danny Namaso	16. Olafsson E. R. (G) 13. Gabriel A. 4. Diao O. 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 29. Paulinho 24. Sorensen O. 5. Martinez E. 6. Andersson J. 14. Chilufya E. 18. Buksa A. 41. Gogorza M.
Substitutes
70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 3. Djalo T. 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 17. Ivan Jaime 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 21. Navarro F. 97. Pedro J. 15. Sousa V. 12. Zaidu	17. Askildsen K. 55. Bak V. 19. Bravo P. 20. Byskov V. 21. Castillo D. 73. Juninho 25. Kuchta J. 3. Lee Han-Beom 53. Lind V. 1. Lossl J. (G) 31. Selin L. (G) 15. Sorensen C.
Coaches
Bruno V.	Thomasberg T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Danny Namaso ⚽, Eustaquio S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Danny Namaso 🟨,
56', 2 - 0, Samu ⚽, Pepê (A),
61', Chilufya E. ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
61', Paulinho ↓, Bak V. ↑,
61', Gogorza M. ↓, Castillo D. ↑,
70', Vieira F. ↓, Ivan Jaime ↑,
71', Olafsson E. R. ↓, Lossl J. ↑,
77', Gabriel A. ↓, Bravo P. ↑,
83', Pepê ↓, Borges G. ↑,
83', Varela A. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
90+3', Fernandes M. ↓, Djalo T. ↑,
90+4', Danny Namaso ↓, Mora R. ↑,
90+8', Bech Sorensen M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Porto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Porto have a series of guest games.

In this match Porto is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Nico (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Midtjylland: Chilufya E. (Injury) Olsson K. (Health problems) Paulinho (Illness)

There are questionable in Porto: Wendell (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Midtjylland: Cho Gue-Sung (Knee Injury) Franculino (Injury) Marrony (Knee Injury) Osorio D. (Injury) Simsir A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
07.12.24	Famalicão - Porto	1:1 ✺
02.12.24	Porto - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Anderlecht - Porto	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.11.24	Moreirense - Porto	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.24	Benfica - Porto	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TWTLL
- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
01.12.24	Vejle Boldklub Kolding - Midtjylland	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Midtjylland - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:2 ✺
Danish Superliga
25.11.24	Midtjylland - Silkeborg IF	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Viborg - Midtjylland	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	FCSB - Midtjylland	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLWLL

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