Match Info

Championship - Round 16

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Salisbury M. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Millwall

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.37	3.2	3.15	Watch
	2.73	3.25	2.79
	2.76	3.11	2.67	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.76)	3.18 ↑ (3.15)	2.94 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
37.9%

Draw
29.8%

Millwall
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.1%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

31.3%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Portsmouth - Millwall Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Millwall will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Millwall (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Millwall (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Millwall (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmid N. (G) 24. Devlin T. 4. Knight J. 5. Poole R. 22. Swanson Z. 18. Kosznovszky M. 21. Dozzell A. 11. Bianchini F. 10. Segecic A. 23. Murphy J. 9. Bishop C. (C)	15. Crocombe M. (G) 2. McNamara D. 4. Crama T. (C) 6. Taylor C. 3. Sturge Z. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 24. De Norre C. 7. Ballo T. 17. Langstaff M. 14. Doughty A. 9. Ivanovic M.
Substitutes
26. Bursik J. (G) 36. Chaplin C. 25. Kirk M. 49. Lang C. 14. Matthews H. 7. Pack M. 8. Swift J. 2. Williams J. 47. Yang Min-Hyuk	31. Bangura-Williams R. 13. Benda S. (G) 23. Bryan J. 25. Cundle L. 22. Emakhu A. 27. Grant K. 45. Harding W. 16. Kelly D. 10. Neghli C.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Swanson Z. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
38', Sturge Z. ↓, Bryan J. ↑,
45+4', McNamara D. 🟨,
45+4', Poole R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 2 - 0, Crama T. (Own goal),
55', Mazou-Sacko D. ↓, Kelly D. ↑,
62', Segecic A. ↓, Lang C. ↑,
62', Doughty A. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
62', McNamara D. ↓, Harding W. ↑,
63', Langstaff M. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
66', Swanson Z. 🟨,
67', Bryan J. 🟥,
69', Swanson Z. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Ivanovic M. ⚽, Emakhu A. (A),
80', Bianchini F. ↓, Chaplin C. ↑,
80', Dozzell A. ↓, Pack M. ↑,
81', Ballo T. ↓, Neghli C. ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Williams J. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Portsmouth has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Millwall has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Blair H. (Hamstring Injury) Farrell J. (Groin Injury) Lang C. (Hamstring Injury) Ogilvie C. (Knee Injury) Schmid N. (Wrist Injury) Segecic A. (Ankle Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Hamstring Injury) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Millwall: Azeez F. (Thigh Injury) Benda S. (Groin Injury) Coburn J. (Muscle Injury) Cooper J. (Yellow Cards) Jensen L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Leonard R. (Calf Injury) Luongo M. (Knee Injury) McNamara D. (Knee Injury) Mitchell B. (Hamstring Injury) Smallbone W. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Portsmouth won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Millwall - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.6%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
08.11.25	Hull City - Portsmouth	3:2 ✺
05.11.25	Portsmouth - Wrexham	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Birmingham City - Portsmouth	4:0 ✺
25.10.25	Portsmouth - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
21.10.25	Portsmouth - Coventry City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- Millwall
English League Championship
08.11.25	Millwall - Preston North End	1:1 ✺
04.11.25	Birmingham City - Millwall	4:0 ✺
01.11.25	Oxford United - Millwall	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Millwall - Leicester City	1:0 ✺
21.10.25	Millwall - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
05.04.25	Millwall - Portsmouth	2:1
28.01.25	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1
English League Cup
13.08.24	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1
10.08.21	Millwall - Portsmouth	2:1
English League Championship
10.04.12	Portsmouth - Millwall	0:1

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