Match Info

Championship - Round 8

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Portsmouth		Watford

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.23	3.36	3.26	Watch
	2.27	3.39	3.39
	13.02	3.61	1.41	Watch
	2.23	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↑ (2.05)	3.44 ↓ (3.5)	3.02 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
28.7%

Draw
33.3%

Watford
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

27.2%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portsmouth's form might have worsened.

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Watford's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portsmouth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Watford, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	41.2%	23.5%

Portsmouth - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Watford will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Watford (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Watford (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Portsmouth (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Watford (3.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Watford (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Watford (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Watford (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Bursik J. (G) 2. Williams J. 4. Knight J. 5. Poole R. 3. Ogilvie C. 7. Pack M. (C) 21. Dozzell A. 36. Chaplin C. 8. Swift J. 47. Yang Min-Hyuk 9. Bishop C.	1. Selvik E. (G) 3. Alleyne M. 6. Pollock M. 25. Abankwah J. 29. Petris J. 5. Kyprianou H. 17. Sissoko M. (C) 26. Wiley C. 10. Louza I. 18. Semedo V. 66. Irankunda N.
Substitutes
11. Bianchini F. 29. Blair H. 24. Devlin T. 30. Killip B. (G) 18. Kosznovszky M. 16. Le Roux L. 14. Matthews H. 10. Segecic A. 22. Swanson Z.	34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 16. Bola M. 39. Kayembe E. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 27. Mendy F. 23. Mendy N. 2. Ngakia J. 11. Vata R.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Pezzolano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Alleyne M. 🟨,
5', 1 - 0, Yang Min-Hyuk ⚽,
13', Yang Min-Hyuk 🟨,
35', Irankunda N. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
43', Petris J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kyprianou H. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
46', Wiley C. ↓, Ngakia J. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Louza I. ⚽, Vata R. (A),
56', 1 - 2, Vata R. ⚽,
63', Yang Min-Hyuk ↓, Blair H. ↑,
63', Chaplin C. ↓, Segecic A. ↑,
70', Abankwah J. ↓, Mendy F. ↑,
72', Williams J. ↓, Devlin T. ↑,
77', Louza I. 🟨,
78', Selvik E. 🟨,
79', 2 - 2, Segecic A. ⚽,
85', Sissoko M. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
89', Pollock M. 🟨,
90+5', Pack M. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 19 and 18)

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Portsmouth is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Blair H. (Hamstring Injury) Lang C. (Hamstring Injury) Schmid N. (Wrist Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Hamstring Injury) Umeh F. (Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G. (Foot Injury) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury) Selvik E. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Murphy J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Watford: Dwomoh P. (Thigh Injury) Semedo V. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
27.09.25	Ipswich Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Portsmouth - Sheffield Wednesday	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Southampton - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Portsmouth - Preston North End	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLTWT
- Watford FC
English League Championship
27.09.25	Watford - Hull City	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Millwall - Watford	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Watford - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Watford - Southampton	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Swansea City - Watford	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.04.25	Portsmouth - Watford	1:0
26.12.24	Watford - Portsmouth	2:1

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