Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 22

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani (Potenza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Potenza		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.15	2.42
	2.83	2.99	2.5	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.4
	2.78	2.88	2.47	Watch
	2.8	3	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.47)	2.96 ↓ (3.43)	2.47 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Potenza
32.5%

Draw
30.7%

Casertana
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

26.8%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

27%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Potenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Casertana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Potenza than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Potenza - Casertana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Cucchietti T. (G) 98. Adjapong C. 6. Loiacono G. 24. Bachini M. (C) 19. Balzano M. 31. Siatounis A. 23. De Marco A. 77. Ghisolfi M. 21. Schimmenti E. 7. Anatriello G. 11. Mazzeo L.	1. De Lucia V. (G) 6. Heinz J. 4. Kontek I. 33. Rocchi G. 18. Oukhadda S. 25. Toscano M. (C) 16. Pezzella S. 94. Liotti D. 20. Bentivegna A. 90. Casarotto M. 91. Vano M.
Substitutes
47. Bura R. 15. Camigliano A. 8. Castorani M. 10. D'Auria G. 27. Erradi B. 22. Franchi D. (G) 83. Gabriele G. 96. Guiotto G. (G) 5. Lucas Martello 28. Maisto F. 9. Murano J. 20. Ragone G. 14. Riggio C. 3. Rocchetti Y.	51. Arzillo V. 13. Bacchetti L. 7. Butic K. 29. De Liguori A. 11. Galletta U. 9. Kallon Y. 10. Leone K. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 8. Proia F. 80. Schiedo L. 22. Vilardi A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', Bentivegna A. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Adjapong C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Heinz J. 🟨,
54', Casarotto M. ↓, Butic K. ↑,
54', Bentivegna A. ↓, Proia F. ↑,
58', Anatriello G. ↓, D'Auria G. ↑,
58', Mazzeo L. ↓, Murano J. ↑,
61', Toscano M. 🟨,
66', Toscano M. ↓, Leone K. ↑,
66', Kontek I. ↓, Kallon Y. ↑,
73', Siatounis A. 🟨,
74', Schimmenti E. ↓, Maisto F. ↑,
75', De Marco A. ↓, Castorani M. ↑,
86', Oukhadda S. ↓, Galletta U. ↑,
86', Loiacono G. 🟨,
89', Loiacono G. ↓, Bura R. ↑,
90+2', Castorani M. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, D'Auria G. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Potenza won 1.

Recent performances by Potenza have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casertana is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Potenza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Potenza won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 0.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Potenza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Potenza	8	6	1	1	21:11	10	19
4	Casertana	9	4	3	2	15:13	2	15

Last Results with these Odds

Potenza - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.24%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Casertana - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 35.94%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Potenza FC
Coppa Italia Serie C
14.01.26	Ternana - Potenza	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
09.01.26	Audace Cerignola - Potenza	4:0 ✺
04.01.26	Potenza - Giugliano	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Monopoli - Potenza	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Potenza - Catania	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLTLT
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
11.01.26	Casertana - Benevento	0:0 ✺
05.01.26	Altamura - Casertana	0:2 ✺
19.12.25	Giugliano - Casertana	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Casertana - Latina	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Audace Cerignola - Casertana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
06.09.25	Casertana - Potenza	3:2
13.04.25	Potenza - Casertana	2:1
01.12.24	Casertana - Potenza	0:0
03.02.24	Casertana - Potenza	0:0
24.09.23	Potenza - Casertana	1:1
03.02.21	Casertana - Potenza	1:0
07.10.20	Potenza - Casertana	2:2

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