Match Info

Championship - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Loftus Road (London)

Referee: Robinson T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Queens Park Rangers		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.25	2.35	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.46	Watch
	3.01	3.4	2.48
	3.16	2.63	2.73	Watch
	2.93	3.24	2.49	Watch
	2.64	3.25	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.6)	3.17 ↓ (3.28)	2.52 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queens Park Rangers
32.4%

Draw
29.9%

Stoke City
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

28.7%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queens Park Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queens Park Rangers than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. QPR will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Stoke will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - QPR (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - QPR (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. QPR (votes: 2 - 50%). Stoke (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nardi P. (G) 3. Dunne J. (C) 4. Morrison L. 27. Mbengue A. S. 18. Norrington-Davies R. 40. Varane J. 24. Madsen N. 20. Vale H. 16. Burrell R. 14. Saito K. 22. Kone R.	1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 18. Lawal B. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 3. Cresswell A. 19. Rigo T. 4. Pearson B. 42. Manhoef M. 8. Baker L. 7. Thomas S. 9. Mubama D.
Substitutes
5. Cook S. 7. Dembele K. 8. Field S. 12. Frey M. 29. Hamer B. (G) 15. Hayden I. 26. Kolli R. 21. Morgan K. 11. Smyth P.	10. Bae J. 17. Bocat E. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 29. Cisse L. 14. Donley J. 26. Phillips A. 12. Seko T. 40. Talovierov M.
Coaches
Stephan J.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Pearson B. 🟨,
42', Norrington-Davies R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
52', Baker L. 🟨,
54', Manhoef M. ↓, Cisse L. ↑,
55', Rigo T. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
60', Varane J. ↓, Hayden I. ↑,
64', Hayden I. 🟨,
67', Mbengue A. S. 🟨,
72', Burrell R. 🟨,
75', 1 - 0, Vale H. ⚽,
81', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,
88', Lawal B. 🟨,
90+2', Nardi P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, QPR won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, QPR has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in QPR: Chair I. (Muscle Injury) Clarke-Salter J. (Hip Injury) Larkeche Z. (Knee Injury) Poku K. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury) N'Zonzi S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stoke: Pearson B. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, QPR won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, QPR won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Queens Park Rangers - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Stoke City - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.49%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queens Park Rangers
English League Championship
13.09.25	Wrexham - Queens Park Rangers	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Queens Park Rangers - Charlton Athletic	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Coventry City - Queens Park Rangers	7:1 ✺
16.08.25	Watford - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Plymouth Argyle - Queens Park Rangers	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWLLL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
13.09.25	Stoke City - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Stoke City - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Stoke City - Bradford City	0:3 ✺
English League Championship
23.08.25	Southampton - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.03.25	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	3:1
23.11.24	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	1:1
14.02.24	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	1:0
28.11.23	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	4:2
29.04.23	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	0:1
17.09.22	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	0:0
23.04.22	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	1:0

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