Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Salisbury M. (Eng)


	Stoke City		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.45
	2.96	3.15	2.52	Watch
	3.06	3.2	2.54
	1.38	4.11	10.28	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.3
	2.83	3.28	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (3.19)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	3.59 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
38.8%

Draw
31.8%

Birmingham City
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

29.2%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

29%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stoke City's performance.

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stoke City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Stoke City - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Birmingham will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Stoke (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 18. Lawal B. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 3. Cresswell A. 8. Baker L. 4. Pearson B. 42. Manhoef M. 19. Rigo T. 7. Thomas S. 9. Mubama D.	21. Allsop R. (G) 20. Cochrane A. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 2. Laird E. 16. Roberts P. 24. Iwata T. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 10. Gray D. 28. Stansfield J. 7. Doyle T.
Substitutes
10. Bae J. 17. Bocat E. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 29. Cisse L. 14. Donley J. 26. Phillips A. 12. Seko T. 40. Talovierov M.	25. Beadle J. (G) 41. Cashin E. 33. Ducksch M. 17. Dykes L. 9. Furuhashi K. 30. Koumas L. 12. Leonard M. 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 6. Robinson J.
Coaches
Robins M.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Lawal B. ⚽, Cresswell A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Doyle T. ↓, Ducksch M. ↑,
59', Laird E. ↓, Osayi-Samuel B. ↑,
60', Roberts P. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
71', Rigo T. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
78', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
79', Stansfield J. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
80', Pearson B. 🟨,
82', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
83', Baker L. 🟨,
84', Neumann P. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
90+3', Manhoef M. ↓, Cisse L. ↑,
90+3', Cresswell A. ↓, Bocat E. ↑,
90+4', Osayi-Samuel B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Stoke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Stoke: Cisse L. (Shoulder Injury) Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury) N'Zonzi S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Birmingham: Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Furuhashi K. (Injury) Stansfield J. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
30.08.25	Stoke City - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Stoke City - Bradford City	0:3 ✺
English League Championship
23.08.25	Southampton - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Stoke City - Walsall	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LLWWW
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
29.08.25	Leicester City - Birmingham City	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Birmingham City - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
23.08.25	Birmingham City - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Blackburn Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.25	Birmingham City - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
20.01.24	Stoke City - Birmingham City	1:2
26.12.23	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:3
10.04.23	Birmingham City - Stoke City	0:0
05.11.22	Stoke City - Birmingham City	1:2
19.02.22	Stoke City - Birmingham City	2:2
14.08.21	Birmingham City - Stoke City	0:0
10.04.21	Birmingham City - Stoke City	2:0

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