Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 13 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Peljto I. (Bih)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	RTL
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sport 1
Italy	Canale 5, Sky Sport
Netherlands	RTL 7
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports
World	SportsMax


	RB Leipzig		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.75	2.25
	2.95	3.7	2.2
	3.05	3.75	2.28	Watch
	2.95	3.75	2.39
	2.93	3.71	2.4
	3	3.7	2.1
	3.24	3.95	2.21
	3.05	3.75	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.13)	3.76 ↓ (3.78)	2.26 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Network on TV: TUDN, Univision

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
31.9%

Draw
25.6%

Real Madrid
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

25.2%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

25.3%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.2%	6.2%	85.6%

RB Leipzig - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (125 of 146 users predict this - 85.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.93% – 91.31%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 2. Simakan M. 16. Klostermann L. 4. Orban W. (C) 22. Raum D. 7. Olmo D. 39. Henrichs B. 24. Schlager X. 20. Simons X. 17. Openda L. 30. Sesko B.	13. Lunin A. (G) 2. Carvajal D. 6. Fernandez N. (C) 18. Tchouameni A. 23. Mendy F. 15. Valverde F. 8. Kroos T. 12. Camavinga E. 21. Diaz B. 11. Rodrygo 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
14. Baumgartner C. 5. Bitshiabu E. 21. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Elmas E. 8. Haidara A. 38. Jatta N. 44. Kampl K. 3. Lenz C. 23. Lukeba C. 9. Poulsen Y. 13. Seiwald N. 25. Zingerle L. (G)	25. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 34. Carrillo A. 19. Ceballos D. 30. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 24. Guler A. 14. Joselu 17. Lucas 28. Martin M. 10. Modric L. 32. Paz N. 41. Ramon J.
Coaches
Rose M.	Ancelotti C.

Preview

1st leg.

RB Leipzig is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches RB Leipzig won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams RB Leipzig won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
10.02.24	Augsburg - RB Leipzig	2:2 ✺
04.02.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
27.01.24	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	5:2 ✺
20.01.24	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3 ✺
13.01.24	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TWLLL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
10.02.24	Real Madrid - Girona	4:0 ✺
04.02.24	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
01.02.24	Getafe - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
27.01.24	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
21.01.24	Real Madrid - Almería	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
25.10.22	RB Leipzig - Real Madrid	3:2
14.09.22	Real Madrid - RB Leipzig	2:0

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