Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.9	3.1	Watch
	2.12	3.7	3.2	Watch
	2.27	3.8	3.09
	2.18	3.88	3.18	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3	Watch
	2.1	4	3.28	Watch
	2	4	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.99)	3.84 ↓ (3.95)	3.17 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
44.9%

Draw
24.9%

Bayer Leverkusen
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

24.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

23.9%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.6%	17.5%	7.9%

RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 46 - 74.2%). Bayer will win (votes: 5 - 8.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 17.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 63.3% – 85.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - RB Leipzig (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 24 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 19. Nedeljkovic K. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 24. Schlager X. 11. Harder C. 40. Romulo Cardoso 27. Gomis T.	1. Flekken M. (G) 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 44. Belocian J. 13. Arthur 24. Garcia A. 10. Tillman M. 23. Tella N. 7. Hofmann J. 11. Terrier M. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
17. Baku R. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 37. Kaltefleiter B. 16. Klostermann L. 45. Konate S. 33. Maksimovic A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 36. Werner T.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 6. Fernandez E. 35. Kofane C. 36. Lomb N. (G) 21. Lucas 27. Mensah J. 18. Sarco A. 16. Tape A.
Coaches
Werner O.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
30', Arthur 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Schlager X. ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Terrier M. ⚽, Arthur (A),
44', 1 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Tella N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Hofmann J. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
70', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Baku R. ↑,
70', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
77', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
77', Terrier M. ↓, Culbreath M. ↑,
77', Tella N. ↓, Tape A. ↑,
79', Gomis T. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
83', Arthur ↓, Lucas ↑,
87', Tape A. 🟨,
89', Seiwald N. ↓, Bitshiabu E. ↑,
90+7', 1 - 3, Culbreath M. ⚽,
90+11', Lukeba C. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 1.

RB Leipzig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

RB Leipzig could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Muscle Injury) Banzuzi E. (Muscle Injury) Diomande Y. (International duty) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (International duty) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Personal Reasons) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Kofane C. (International duty) Maza I. (International duty) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Poku E. (Injury) Quansah J. (Yellow Cards) Tapsoba E. (International duty)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Bitshiabu E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:28. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	RB Leipzig - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWTW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.01.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
31.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:3
20.01.24	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
19.08.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	3:2
23.04.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0
29.10.22	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0
17.04.22	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	0:1

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