Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2024, Monday

Location: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Radomiak Radom		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	4	Watch
	1.83	3.6	4
	1.85	3.6	4	Watch
	1.9	3.64	4.4
	1.88	3.61	4.15	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.9
	1.83	3.68	4.07	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.76)	3.62 ↓ (3.65)	4.07 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Radomiak Radom
50.9%

Draw
26%

Puszcza Niepołomice
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25.5%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

24.3%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Puszcza Niepołomice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.3%	30%	6.7%

Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Radomiak will win (votes: 18 - 62.1%). Puszcza will win (votes: 2 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 31%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Radomiak: 44.4% – 79.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kikolski M. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 4. Mammadov R. 8. Luizao 23. Henrique P. 28. Kaput M. 77. Donis C. 13. Grzesik J. 10. Alves R. 7. Peglow 17. Rocha L.	1. Komar K. (G) 8. Mrozinski P. 22. Craciun A. 3. Yakuba R. 4. Szymonowicz D. 70. Hajda W. 14. Serafin J. 6. Lee Jin-Hyun 17. Radecki M. 33. Abramowicz D. 35. Kosidis M.
Substitutes
20. Cielemecki R. 99. Guilherme 14. Jakubik D. 6. Jordao B. 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 88. Ramos F. 70. Vagner	24. Blagaic J. 11. Cholewiak M. 23. Kielis P. 29. Okoniewski K. 31. Perchel M. (G) 27. Solowiej L. 12. Stepien M. 16. Walski M.
Coaches
Baltazar B.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Peglow 🟨,
45+2', Kaput M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Rocha L. (Pen),
61', Radecki M. ↓, Cholewiak M. ↑,
63', Kaput M. ↓, Jordao B. ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Grzesik J. ⚽, Zie Ouattara (A),
75', Hajda W. ↓, Okoniewski K. ↑,
75', Mrozinski P. ↓, Walski M. ↑,
80', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Stepien M. ↑,
80', Szymonowicz D. 🟨,
90+2', Grzesik J. ↓, Leandro ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Radomiak won 2.

Recent matches Radomiak is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Puszcza is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Radomiak is a favorite.

There will not play in Radomiak: Capita (Injury) Snopczynski J. (Injury) Vagner (Injury)

There will not play in Puszcza: Blagaic J. (Injury) Kidric R. (Injury) Kielis P. (Injury) Siemaszko A. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Radomiak won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:10 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Radomiak won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 0.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
05.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
29.09.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Radomiak Radom	1:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Górnik Zabrze - Radomiak Radom	0:1 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.24	Radomiak Radom - Korona Kielce	4:0 ✺
14.09.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWL
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.10.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - GKS Katowice	0:6 ✺
28.09.24	Raków Częstochowa - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Górnik Łęczna - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:2 ✺
15.09.24	Piast Gliwice - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
01.04.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom	1:1
23.09.23	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1
Polish Division 1
14.04.21	Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom	0:4
21.10.20	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0
25.07.20	Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom	4:0
Club Friendly
25.01.20	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1
Polish Division 1
09.11.19	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1

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