Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 36

Date: 15 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Diaz de Mera I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Rayo Vallecano		Granada

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	7	Watch
	1.52	4	6.75
	1.52	4.2	7	Watch
	1.53	4.21	7.2
	1.53	4.21	7
	1.5	4	7
	1.56	4.27	7.09	Watch
	1.5	4.25	7.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.76)	4.14 ↑ (3.66)	7.02 ↑ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
63.2%

Draw
23.2%

Granada
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

26%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

27.2%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Vallecano's performance.

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Granada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Vallecano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Granada could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.6%	1.9%	7.5%

Rayo Vallecano - Granada Predictions

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (47 of 52 users predict this - 90.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.37% – 98.39%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 20. Balliu I. 16. Mumin A. 24. Lejeune F. 12. Espino A. 7. Palazon I. 23. Valentin O. (C) 17. Lopez U. 18. Garcia A. 34. Camello S. 8. Trejo O.	13. Martinez M. (G) 12. Sanchez R. 4. Rubio M. 28. Torrente R. 15. Neva C. (C) 19. Pellistri F. 20. Ruiz S. 23. Gumbau G. 17. Corbeanu T. 21. Melendo O. 7. Boye L.
Substitutes
10. Bebe 13. Cardenas D. (G) 3. Chavarria P. 21. Ciss P. 15. Crespo M. 19. de Frutos J. 22. de Tomas R. 9. Falcao R. 5. Hernandez A. 11. Nteka R. 14. Perez K. 2. Ratiu A.	8. Arezo M. 25. Batalla A. (G) 2. Bruno Mendez 9. Callejon J. 6. Hongla M. 31. Lopez A. (G) 3. Maouassa F. 14. Miquel I. 22. Piatkowski K. 26. Rodelas S. 24. Villar G.
Coaches
Perez I.	Sandoval J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Trejo O. 🟥,
23', 1 - 0, Lejeune F. ⚽,
31', Lopez U. 🟨,
42', Corbeanu T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lopez U. ↓, Crespo M. ↑,
46', Melendo O. ↓, Villar G. ↑,
46', Corbeanu T. ↓, Callejon J. ↑,
57', Espino A. 🟨,
60', Ruiz S. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
65', Camello S. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
73', Torrente R. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
78', Valentin O. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, de Frutos J. ⚽,
83', Callejon J. 🟨,
88', Palazon I. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
88', Garcia A. ↓, Perez K. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Boye L. ⚽, Rodelas S. (A),
90', Neva C. 🟨,
90+2', Nteka R. 🟨,
90+5', Camello S. 🟨,
90+5', Falcao R. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Granada is Relegated to LaLiga2

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rayo Vallecano won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Granada could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rayo Vallecano is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Granada: Jozwiak K. (Knee Injury) Puertas A. (Contusion) Uzuni M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Granada: Batalla A. (Injury) Fernandez R. (Wrist Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Rayo Vallecano won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Rayo Vallecano won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
12.05.24	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
05.05.24	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	0:1 ✺
28.04.24	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
20.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Getafe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLLWT
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga
11.05.24	Granada - Real Madrid	0:4 ✺
05.05.24	Sevilla - Granada	3:0 ✺
28.04.24	Granada - Osasuna	3:0 ✺
19.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Granada	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Granada - Deportivo Alavés	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
21.08.23	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
03.04.22	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	2:2
29.08.21	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	4:0
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.18	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
02.12.17	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
19.03.16	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	2:2
07.11.15	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	2:1

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