Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Trophy

Date: 12 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Select Car Leasing Stadium (Reading)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Reading		Newport County

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.75	5
	1.46	4.33	5
	1.47	4.5	5.5
	1.49	4.71	5.12
	1.51	4.67	5.27	Watch
	1.44	4.4	5.5
	1.47	4.65	5.54
	1.47	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (2.04)	4.56 ↑ (3.73)	5.3 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reading
62.4%

Draw
20.2%

Newport County
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

24.8%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

24.5%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reading has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Reading's performance.

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newport County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reading than the current prediction. (-16.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Reading that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newport County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	0%	4.5%

Reading - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: Reading will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Button D. (G) 39. Ahmed A. 27. Mbengue A. S. 3. Dorsett A. J. R. 30. Garcia A. 4. Elliott B. 29. Wing L. (C) 47. Spencer S. 37. Akande A. 19. Wareham J. 28. Camara M.	13. Carney J. (G) 12. Thomas J. 4. Baker M. 23. Jameson K. 19. McLoughlin S. 14. Whitmore K. 24. Wildig A. (C) 17. Evans K. 10. Greaves O. 9. Baker-Richardson C. 7. Kamwa B.
Substitutes
31. Boyce-Clarke C. (G) 20. Campbell C. 5. Craig M. 34. Holzman L. 32. Kanu A. 7. Knibbs H. 14. Rushesha T.	11. Antwi C. 5. Clarke J. 26. Evans C. 31. Jephcott L. 8. Morris B. 21. Spellman M. 1. Townsend N. (G)
Coaches
Selles R.	Jardim N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Mbengue A. S. 🟨,
28', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Jameson K. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
53', Mbengue A. S. ↓, Holzman L. ↑,
63', Whitmore K. ↓, Antwi C. ↑,
63', McLoughlin S. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
64', Akande A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
64', Ahmed A. ↓, Craig M. ↑,
64', Spencer S. ↓, Knibbs H. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Knibbs H. ⚽, Wing L. (A),
75', 2 - 0, Wareham J. ⚽, Campbell C. (A),
76', Thomas J. ↓, Spellman M. ↑,
77', Wildig A. ↓, Morris B. ↑,
82', Dorsett A. J. R. ↓, Kanu A. ↑,
87', 3 - 0, Knibbs H. ⚽, Campbell C. (A),

Preview

Recent matches Reading is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newport is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Reading is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Reading won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Including matches at home between the teams Reading won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reading
English League One
09.11.24	Stevenage Borough - Reading	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.11.24	Cheltenham Town - Reading	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Reading - Fleetwood Town	2:0 ✺
English League One
29.10.24	Stockport County - Reading	4:1 ✺
26.10.24	Reading - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWLW
- Newport County
English League Two
09.11.24	Tranmere Rovers - Newport County	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Newport County - Peterborough United	2:4 ✺
English League Two
26.10.24	Newport County - Fleetwood Town	0:0 ✺
22.10.24	Gillingham - Newport County	0:2 ✺
18.10.24	Newport County - Chesterfield	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
12.08.14	Reading - Newport County	3:1

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