Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: CONCACAF Champions Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Independencia (Estelí)

Referee: Herrera K. (Cos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Puerto-rico	Fox Sports 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Real Estelí		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.9
	3.8	3.4	1.93
	3.55	3.25	1.91
	4.04	3.45	1.94
	4.01	3.48	1.89	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.85
	3.9	3.72	1.85
	3.55	3.25	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (6.13)	3.43 ↓ (3.7)	1.9 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

Watch this match and CONCACAF Champions Cup with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Sports 2

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Current Win Probability

Real Estelí
24.2%

Draw
27%

Tigres UANL
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.7%

24.4%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.5%

24.1%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Estelí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Estelí's performance.

Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tigres UANL might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Estelí than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Estelí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tigres UANL could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Real Estelí - Tigres UANL Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Real Estelí will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Tigres will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Estelí: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vega J. (G) 27. Quijano J. 3. Nino H. 20. Lloreda J. 11. Hernandez B. 8. Sanchez Lopez J. A. 10. Medina H. 16. Techera M. 18. Parra W. 34. Gutierrez J. 7. Bonilla B.	31. Tapia F. (G) 14. Garza J. 4. Sanchez J. 28. Ordonez Delgado F. I. 27. Angulo J. 5. Rafael Carioca 6. Vigon J. 17. Cordova S. 34. Parra B. 22. Antuna U. 77. Herrera O.
Substitutes
13. Baez A. 1. Cerda E. 28. Cole K. 17. Flores C. 6. Grahl F. 14. Macareno K. 19. Martinez E. J. 21. Ordonez B. 22. Salandia C. (G) 12. Talavera W. 2. Vallecillo F.	18. Ayala D. 30. Fulgencio R. 9. Ibanez N. 37. Jaime Sanchez K. Y. 16. Lainez D. 32. Lorona V. 21. Pizzuto E. 36. Ramos A. (G) 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 35. Rodriguez O. 23. Romulo 15. Tercero E.
Coaches
Olivas R.	Paunovic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Garza J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Parra B. ↓, Romulo ↑,
53', Ordonez Delgado F. I. 🟨,
60', Cordova S. ↓, Ibanez N. ↑,
60', Antuna U. ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
67', Sanchez Lopez J. A. ↓, Grahl F. ↑,
73', Lloreda J. ↓, Ordonez B. ↑,
73', Hernandez B. ↓, Corea D. ↑,
76', Vigon J. ↓, Lainez D. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Grahl F. ⚽, Medina H. (A),
85', Sanchez J. ↓, Tercero E. ↑,
90+1', Medina H. ↓, Cole K. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Real Estelí is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tigres is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Real Estelí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Tigres will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Real Estelí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Estelí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Estelí
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
25.01.25	Real Estelí - Matagalpa	2:0 ✺
22.01.25	Real Estelí - Walter Ferretti	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Rancho Santana - Real Estelí	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Diriangén - Real Estelí	3:2 ✺
18.12.24	Real Estelí - Diriangén	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLLT
- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
01.02.25	Toluca - Tigres UANL	1:0 ✺
28.01.25	Tigres UANL - Tijuana	4:0 ✺
25.01.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
17.01.25	Tigres UANL - Mazatlan	2:1 ✺
11.01.25	Atlético San Luis - Tigres UANL	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.09.12	Real Estelí - Tigres UANL	1:1
01.08.12	Tigres UANL - Real Estelí	N/A

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