Match Info

LaLiga - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 5, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 5, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Variety 4
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2
Tanzania	TV3 Tanzania
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online


	Real Madrid		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5	Watch
	1.47	4.8	6
	1.58	4.7	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4.95	5.5
	1.56	4.82	5.54	Watch
	1.53	4.5	5
	1.61	4.66	5.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)	4.7 ↓ (4.74)	5.31 ↓ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
61.6%

Draw
20.3%

Athletic Bilbao
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

20.8%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

20%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	3.7%	14.8%

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 17. Asencio R. 4. Alaba D. 18. Carreras A. 30. Mastantuono F. 5. Bellingham J. 8. Valverde F. 45. Pitarch T. 16. Garcia G. 10. Mbappe K.	27. Padilla A. (G) 3. Vivian D. 5. Alvarez Y. 4. Paredes A. 19. Boiro A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 20. Gomez U. 23. Navarro R. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
6. Camavinga E. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 50. Gonzalez A. (G) 15. Guler A. 24. Huijsen D. 13. Lunin A. (G) 22. Rudiger A. 51. Serrano M. 14. Tchouameni A.	12. Areso J. 40. Gift E. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 14. Laporte A. 15. Lekue I. 24. Prados Diaz B. 30. Rego A. 21. Sannadi M. 22. Serrano N. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', Pitarch T. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Garcia G. ⚽, Carvajal D. (A),
20', Bellingham J. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Bellingham J. ⚽, Pitarch T. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Williams I. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Alvarez Y. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
51', 3 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Carreras A. (A),
60', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Lekue I. ↑,
60', Gomez U. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
70', Alaba D. ↓, Huijsen D. ↑,
74', Bellingham J. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
74', Garcia G. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
74', Mastantuono F. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
74', Guruzeta G. ↓, Izeta ↑,
84', Carvajal D. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
86', Jauregizar M. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Diaz B. ⚽, Pitarch T. (A),
90+1', 4 - 2, Izeta ⚽, Williams I. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 12).

Real is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.

Real is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletic is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Real has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Real: Ceballos D. (Coach's decision) Eder Militao (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Muscle Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Berchiche Y. (Yellow Cards) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Illness) Guler A. (Muscle Injury) Tchouameni A. (Muscle Injury) Vinicius Junior (Rest)

There are questionable in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:10. (average 1.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Ath Bilbao: 0.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 64.47%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Sevilla - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
14.05.26	Real Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Barcelona - Real Madrid	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Espanyol - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Athletic Bilbao - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
13.05.26	Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Athletic Bilbao - Valencia	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	2:4 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
03.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3
20.04.25	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
04.12.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	2:1
31.03.24	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:0
12.08.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:2
04.06.23	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
22.01.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:2

Upcoming Matches