Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Canal+, DAZN 2
Azerbaijan	00:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
China	04:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1, V Sport Premium
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	RTE 2, RTE Player, Shabake 3
Israel	22:00	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Japan	05:00	Wowow Live
Kazakhstan	02:00	Qazsport
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3, RTK 1
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Maldives	01:00	Medianet
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	14:00	FOX One
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	06:00	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 4
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5, Sport TV+
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3, RTS 1
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Kanal A, Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, VTV Prime
International	20:00	Sport 24


	Real Madrid		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.9	4.1
	1.51	4.8	5.5
	1.82	3.95	4.2
	1.85	3.95	4.4
	1.7	4.32	4.76	Watch
	1.75	3.9	4
	1.8	3.99	4.47
	1.44	4.75	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.48)	4.2 ↓ (4.92)	4.72 ↓ (5.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
56.5%

Draw
23%

Benfica
20.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.5%

19.4%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

18.1%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Madrid's form might have worsened.

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.1%	9.7%	6.2%

Real Madrid - Benfica Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Real (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1 - Benfica (1.63) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Benfica (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Real (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Real (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (95 of 111 users predict this - 85.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.06% – 92.12%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (36 of 38 users predict this - 94.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 46 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 41 - 89.1%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 8.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 17. Asencio R. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 6. Camavinga E. 15. Guler A. 16. Garcia G. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 18. Barreiro L. 8. Aursnes F. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
4. Alaba D. 2. Carvajal D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 21. Diaz B. 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Mendy F. 37. Moran M. A. 38. Palacios C. 45. Pitarch T.	6. Bah A. 5. Barrenechea E. 72. Cabral A. 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu 62. Neto J. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G) 10. Sudakov G.
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Tralhao J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Rafa Silva ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Tchouameni A. ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
35', Rios R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Otamendi N. 🟨,
57', Asencio R. 🟨,
77', Asencio R. ↓, Alaba D. ↑,
77', Camavinga E. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
84', Garcia G. ↓, Pitarch T. ↑,
84', Guler A. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
85', Schjelderup A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
85', Aursnes F. ↓, Barrenechea E. ↑,
90+1', Carreras A. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
90+1', Barreiro L. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
90+6', Palacios C. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Real: Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Mbappe K. (Knee Injury) Rodrygo (Red Card)

There will not play in Benfica: Felix N. (Knee Injury) Prestianni G. (Suspended) Soares S. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Sudakov G. (Back Injury)

We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.7:3).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10:5	5	9

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 8.73%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Osasuna - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
08.02.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Benfica - AVS	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.02.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Benfica - Alverca	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1
28.01.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	4:2
Club Friendly
27.07.12	Benfica - Real Madrid	5:2

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