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Real Madrid - Benfica: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
  • Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday
  • Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
  • Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Real Madrid Benfica
    Real Madrid Benfica
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.71 ↑
    (1.48)    		 4.2 ↓
    (4.92)    		 4.72 ↓
    (5.89)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Real Madrid
    56.5%    		Draw
    23%    		Benfica
    20.5%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    64.5% 19.4% 16.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    66.7% 18.8% 15.7%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Madrid's form might have worsened.
  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    84.1% 9.7% 6.2%

    Real Madrid - Benfica Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DNB - Real (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH +1 - Benfica (1.63) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Benfica (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Real (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Real (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (95 of 111 users predict this - 85.59%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 79.06% – 92.12%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (36 of 38 users predict this - 94.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 46 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 41 - 89.1%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 8.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    17. SpainAsencio R.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    		  1. UkraineTrubin A. (G)
    17. BosniaDedic A.
    44. PortugalAraujo T.
    30. ArgentinaOtamendi N. (C)
    26. SwedenDahl S.
    20. ColombiaRios R.
    18. LuxembourgBarreiro L.
      8. NorwayAursnes F.
    27. PortugalRafa Silva
    21. NorwaySchjelderup A.
    14. GreecePavlidis V.
    Substitutes
      4. AustriaAlaba D.
      2. SpainCarvajal D.
    28. SpainCestero Sancho J.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    26. SpainFran (G)
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    23. FranceMendy F.
    37. SpainMoran M. A.
    38. SpainPalacios C.
    45. SpainPitarch T.
    		  6. DenmarkBah A.
      5. ArgentinaBarrenechea E.
    72. PortugalCabral A.
    50. PortugalFerreira D. (G)
      9. CroatiaIvanovic F.
    15. CapeLopes Cabral S.
    11. BelgiumLukebakio D.
    16. PortugalManu
    62. PortugalNeto J.
      4. PortugalSilva A.
    24. PortugalSoares S. (G)
    10. UkraineSudakov G.
    Coaches
         SpainArbeloa A.
    		     PortugalTralhao J.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 1)
    • 14', 0 - 1, Rafa Silva ⚽,
    • 16', 1 - 1, Tchouameni A. ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
    • 35', Rios R. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 51', Otamendi N. 🟨,
    • 57', Asencio R. 🟨,
    • 77', Asencio R. ↓, Alaba D. ↑,
    • 77', Camavinga E. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
    • 80', 2 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
    • 84', Garcia G. ↓, Pitarch T. ↑,
    • 84', Guler A. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
    • 85', Schjelderup A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
    • 85', Aursnes F. ↓, Barrenechea E. ↑,
    • 90+1', Carreras A. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
    • 90+1', Barreiro L. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
    • 90+6', Palacios C. 🟨,

    Preview

  • First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.
  • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
  • In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.
  • There will not play in Real: Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Mbappe K. (Knee Injury) Rodrygo (Red Card)
  • There will not play in Benfica: Felix N. (Knee Injury) Prestianni G. (Suspended) Soares S. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)
  • There are questionable in Benfica: Sudakov G. (Back Injury)
  • We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.
  • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.7:3).

    • Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now
    Real Madrid: 10.27%

    Standings

    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    14Real Madrid11002:113

    Last Results with these Odds

    Real Madrid - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 64.47%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    21.02.26 Osasuna - Real Madrid 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    17.02.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.02.26 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:1 ✺
    08.02.26 Valencia - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    01.02.26 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1
    LWWWW
    - SL Benfica
    Liga Portugal
    21.02.26 Benfica - AVS 3:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    17.02.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    Liga Portugal
    13.02.26 Santa Clara - Benfica 1:2 ✺
    08.02.26 Benfica - Alverca 2:1 ✺
    01.02.26 Tondela - Benfica 0:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7
    WLWWT
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Champions League
    17.02.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 0:1
    28.01.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2
    Club Friendly
    27.07.12 Benfica - Real Madrid 5:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    14.10.26 Roma - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺
    - SL Benfica
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Benfica - Celtic ✺
    Liga Portugal
    11.10.26 Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães ✺

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