Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3


	Tondela		Benfica

	1	X	2
	9	5	1.27	Watch
	8.5	5	1.33
	9.8	5.4	1.27	Watch
	11.45	5.78	1.3
	10.08	5.64	1.3	Watch
	9.5	5	1.3
	10	5.57	1.33	Watch
	8.5	5	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.6 ↑ (8.98)	5.3 ↓ (5.43)	1.3 ↓ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
9.8%

Draw
17.8%

Benfica
72.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.5%

17.4%

72.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

13.9%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	9.1%	84.8%

Tondela - Benfica Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Benfica (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (26 of 31 users predict this - 83.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.92% – 96.82%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 19 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 15. Sithole S. 10. Hodge J. 27. Conceicao R. 97. Cicero 90. Aiko M. 29. Siebatcheu J.	1. Trubin A. (G) 58. Banjaqui D. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 25. Prestianni G. 10. Sudakov G. 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 14. Huarte X. 48. Manso T. 7. Pedro Maranhao 32. Rodriguez J. 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.	44. Araujo T. 5. Barrenechea E. 7. Bruma 72. Cabral A. 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 16. Manu 27. Rafa Silva
Coaches
Bacci C.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Sithole S. 🟨,
42', Maviram E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Marques C. 🟨,
63', Schjelderup A. ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
63', Banjaqui D. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
64', Maviram E. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
66', Hodge J. ↓, Pedro Maranhao ↑,
72', Canizares L. 🟨,
80', Conceicao R. 🟨,
82', Sudakov G. ↓, Bruma ↑,
82', Prestianni G. ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
90+3', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Afonso J. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.

Recent form of Tondela has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle) Rios R. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Araujo H. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 8:41. (average 0.5:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 3:20. (average 0.4:2.9).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Benfica: 23.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLWL
- SL Benfica
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.01.26	Benfica - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Juventus - Benfica	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
17.01.26	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Porto - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0
Liga Portugal
23.08.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0
07.02.22	Tondela - Benfica	1:3
29.08.21	Benfica - Tondela	2:1
30.04.21	Tondela - Benfica	0:2
08.01.21	Benfica - Tondela	2:0
04.06.20	Benfica - Tondela	0:0

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