Match Info

LaLiga - Round 26

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15


	Real Oviedo		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.8	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.7
	4.7	3.55	1.82	Watch
	4.95	3.6	1.83
	4.76	3.64	1.83
	4.6	3.3	1.75
	5.15	3.57	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↓ (6.4)	3.54 ↓ (3.96)	1.79 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Oviedo
19.6%

Draw
27%

Atlético Madrid
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.8%

23.9%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.6%

23.5%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	7.3%	89.1%

Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Oviedo (3.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (49 of 55 users predict this - 89.09%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.85% – 97.33%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Oviedo (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Atlético (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Escandell A. (G) 22. Vidal N. 12. Calvo D. (C) 16. Carmo D. 25. Lopez J. 6. Sibo K. 23. Fonseca N. 10. Hassan H. 5. Reina A. 7. Chaira I. 9. Vinas F.	13. Oblak J. (C) 16. Molina N. 2. Gimenez J. M. 24. Le Normand R. 34. Diaz J. 11. Almada T. 5. Cardoso J. 4. Mendoza R. 10. Baena A. 9. Sorloth A. 22. Lookman A.
Substitutes
27. Agudin P. 24. Ahijado L. 3. Alhassane R. 17. Borbas T. 8. Cazorla S. 11. Colombatto S. 20. Dendoncker L. 33. Espi 15. Fernandez T. 19. Fores A. 21. Ilic L. 1. Moldovan H. (G)	19. Alvarez J. 33. de Luis M. (G) 7. Griezmann A. 17. Hancko D. 6. Koke 15. Lenglet C. 14. Llorente M. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Almada G.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Vidal N. 🟨,
45', Le Normand R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lookman A. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
61', Mendoza R. ↓, Koke ↑,
61', Sorloth A. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
61', Cardoso J. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
65', Fonseca N. ↓, Colombatto S. ↑,
71', Lopez J. 🟨,
71', Molina N. 🟨,
72', Almada T. ↓, Llorente M. ↑,
72', Hassan H. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
72', Chaira I. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
80', Vidal N. ↓, Ahijado L. ↑,
80', Reina A. ↓, Cazorla S. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Oviedo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Oviedo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Oviedo: Bailly E. (Injury) Costas D. (Muscle Injury) Ejaria O. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Oviedo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Oviedo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.35%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Real Sociedad - Real Oviedo	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Real Oviedo - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Real Oviedo - Girona	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Barcelona - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Osasuna - Real Oviedo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWLL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Club Brugge	4:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	3:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.23	Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid	0:2
Club Friendly
28.07.15	Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid	0:2

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