Match Info

LaLiga - Round 26

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	07:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	00:00	Idman TV
Bangladesh	02:00	Begin
Belarus	23:00	Belarus 5
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	TSN+
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Play
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports 1
Hong Kong	04:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	01:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	22:00	ONE Sport
Italy	21:00	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	05:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	02:00	Setanta Sports
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Madagascar	23:00	UpTV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	14:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	21:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	23:00	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Disney+, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	SCTV 15


	Real Oviedo		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.8	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.7
	4.7	3.55	1.82	Watch
	4.95	3.6	1.83
	4.76	3.64	1.83
	4.6	3.3	1.75
	5.15	3.57	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↓ (6.4)	3.54 ↓ (3.96)	1.79 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Oviedo
19.6%

Draw
27%

Atlético Madrid
53.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

14.8%

23.9%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.4%

23.2%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Oviedo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	7.3%	89.1%

Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Oviedo (3.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (49 of 55 users predict this - 89.09%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.85% – 97.33%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Oviedo (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Atlético (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Escandell A. (G) 22. Vidal N. 12. Calvo D. (C) 16. Carmo D. 25. Lopez J. 6. Sibo K. 23. Fonseca N. 10. Hassan H. 5. Reina A. 7. Chaira I. 9. Vinas F.	13. Oblak J. (C) 16. Molina N. 2. Gimenez J. M. 24. Le Normand R. 34. Diaz J. 11. Almada T. 5. Cardoso J. 4. Mendoza R. 10. Baena A. 9. Sorloth A. 22. Lookman A.
Substitutes
27. Agudin P. 24. Ahijado L. 3. Alhassane R. 17. Borbas T. 8. Cazorla S. 11. Colombatto S. 20. Dendoncker L. 33. Espi 15. Fernandez T. 19. Fores A. 21. Ilic L. 1. Moldovan H. (G)	19. Alvarez J. 33. de Luis M. (G) 7. Griezmann A. 17. Hancko D. 6. Koke 15. Lenglet C. 14. Llorente M. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Almada G.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Vidal N. 🟨,
45', Le Normand R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lookman A. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
61', Mendoza R. ↓, Koke ↑,
61', Sorloth A. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
61', Cardoso J. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
65', Fonseca N. ↓, Colombatto S. ↑,
71', Lopez J. 🟨,
71', Molina N. 🟨,
72', Almada T. ↓, Llorente M. ↑,
72', Hassan H. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
72', Chaira I. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
80', Vidal N. ↓, Ahijado L. ↑,
80', Reina A. ↓, Cazorla S. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Oviedo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Oviedo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Oviedo: Bailly E. (Injury) Costas D. (Muscle Injury) Ejaria O. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Oviedo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Oviedo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	10	8	1	1	20:8	12	25

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 6.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.35%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Real Sociedad - Real Oviedo	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Real Oviedo - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Real Oviedo - Girona	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Barcelona - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Osasuna - Real Oviedo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWLL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Club Brugge	4:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	3:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.23	Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid	0:2
Club Friendly
28.07.15	Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid	0:2

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