Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Reale Arena (San Sebastian) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 1, DStv Now, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, SuperSport GOtv Football, ZAP
Albania	18:30	SuperSport 3
Angola	17:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	13:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	20:30	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA
Australia	03:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	18:30	DAZN
Bangladesh	22:30	Begin
Bolivia	12:30	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	13:30	Disney+
Bulgaria	19:30	Max Sport 1
Canada	12:30	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	13:30	DirecTV Sports
China	00:30	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	18:30	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	18:30	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	18:30	TV2 Play
Ecuador	11:30	DirecTV Sports
Finland	19:30	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	18:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports 1
Hong Kong	00:30	M Plus Live
India	22:00	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	23:30	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	18:30	DAZN Italia
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	19:30	Gotv
Kosovo	18:30	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Macao	00:30	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	18:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	10:30	Sky Sport
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	18:30	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	11:30	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	18:30	CANAL+ Sport 4
Portugal	17:30	DAZN / App
Romania	19:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	19:30	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	18:30	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	00:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	18:30	Voyo
South Africa	18:30	SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Spain	18:30	DAZN 3, LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	18:30	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	18:30	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+
Ukraine	19:30	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:30	Amazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	13:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	12:30	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	12:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	23:30	SCTV 22


	Real Sociedad		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.5
	2.12	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.16	3.44	3.65
	2.14	3.42	3.43	Watch
	2.2	3.51	3.61	Watch
	2.07	3.45	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.12)	3.42 ↓ (3.42)	3.53 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
45.1%

Draw
27.9%

Rayo Vallecano
27%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	51.7%	17.2%

Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Real Sociedad will win (votes: 9 - 32.1%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.5% – 68.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 2 - 25%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Real Sociedad (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Rayo Vallecano (2.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 5. Zubeldia I. 16. Caleta-Car D. 17. Gomez S. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 11. Guedes G. 23. Mendez B. 18. Soler C. 7. Barrenetxea A. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)	13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 23. Valentin O. (C) 19. de Frutos J. 7. Palazon I. 18. Garcia A. 9. Alemao
Substitutes
38. Beitia L. 22. Goti Lopez M. 19. Karrikaburu J. 14. Kubo T. 28. Marin P. 13. Marrero U. (G) 3. Munoz A. 20. Odriozola A. 15. Sadiq U. 24. Sucic L. 8. Turrientes B. 21. Zakharyan A.	20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 30. Gil J. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 11. Nteka R. 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.
Coaches
Francisco S.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Garcia A. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
60', Soler C. 🟨,
61', Soler C. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
61', Guedes G. ↓, Sucic L. ↑,
62', Palazon I. 🟨,
65', Palazon I. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
71', Ciss P. ↓, Vertrouwd J. ↑,
77', Alemao ↓, Pacha ↑,
77', de Frutos J. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
80', Barrenetxea A. ↓, Karrikaburu J. ↑,
80', Mendez B. ↓, Marin P. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Pacha ⚽, Ratiu A. (A),
90+2', Lejeune F. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Real Sociedad could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Elustondo A. (Contusion) Martin J. (International duty) Oskarsson O. (Thigh Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Camello S. (Red Card) Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:25. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Betis - Real Sociedad	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Real Oviedo - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL
- Rayo Vallecano
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Rayo Vallecano - Shkendija Tetovo	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla	0:1 ✺
24.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
16.03.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad	2:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.25	Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano	3:1
Spanish LaLiga
18.08.24	Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano	1:2
27.01.24	Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
29.10.23	Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad	2:2
22.04.23	Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
21.01.23	Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad	0:2

Upcoming Matches