Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadio Oreste Granillo (Reggio Calabria)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Reggina		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.9
	1.9	3.5	3.85
	1.94	3.63	4.2
	2.1	3.25	3.5
	1.88	3.64	3.98	Watch
	1.93	3.45	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.17)	3.48 ↑ (3.37)	3.89 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reggina
48.7%

Draw
27.1%

Ascoli
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.1%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reggina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reggina than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	58.3%	8.3%

Reggina - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Reggina will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Ascoli will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Reggio Calabria has the most likely position - 7 (100%), project points - 54, currently - 52, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a very small chance of promoted (2%), not chance of win league.

Ascoli has the most likely position - 12 (31.64%), project points - 48, currently - 47, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 30, very small importance 4, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Reggio Calabria won 1.

Reggio Calabria is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ascoli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Reggio Calabria will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Reggio Calabria won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Reggio Calabria won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Reggina 1914
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Bari - Reggina	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Reggina - Como	2:1 ✺
01.05.23	Frosinone - Reggina	3:1 ✺
21.04.23	Reggina - Brescia	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Benevento - Reggina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Ascoli - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Genoa - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
01.05.23	Ascoli - Pisa	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Como - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Ascoli - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Ascoli - Reggina	0:1
10.04.22	Ascoli - Reggina	2:0
30.11.21	Reggina - Ascoli	1:2
04.05.21	Reggina - Ascoli	2:2
04.01.21	Ascoli - Reggina	2:1
19.03.13	Ascoli - Reggina	0:3
27.10.12	Reggina - Ascoli	2:0

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