Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mino Favini (Meda)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Renate		Casarano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.05	Watch
	2.19	3.24	3.3
	2.17	3.2	3.18	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3
	2.2	3.24	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.92)	3.16 ↓ (3.28)	3.16 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renate
41.9%

Draw
29.1%

Casarano
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

28%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Renate's form might have worsened.

Casarano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renate than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Renate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casarano than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casarano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Renate - Casarano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Nobile T. (G) 5. Auriletto S. 17. Bonetti A. 14. Cali M. 11. Delcarro A. 16. Ekuban J. 9. Karlsson O. 15. Ori R. 21. Riviera C. 25. Vassallo F. 80. Vesentini F.	1. Bacchin F. (G) 35. Cerbone S. 10. Chirico C. 24. Gega E. 3. Giraudo F. 9. Grandolfo F. 46. Leonetti V. 23. Logoluso G. 4. Lulic K. 17. Maiello R. 34. Negro S.
Substitutes
92. Anelli N. 12. Bartoccioni A. (G) 77. De Leo L. 2. De Zen R. 8. Esposito G. 97. Fall M. 3. Gardoni P. 72. Mastromonaco G. 7. Muhameti E. 45. Nene S. 6. Rossi G. 71. Ruiz Giraldo P. 19. Ziu D.	25. Bachini M. 5. Celiento D. 22. Chiorra N. (G) 8. D'Alena A. 80. Di Dio F. 29. Gyamfi B. 33. Mercadante M. 7. Palumbo F. 6. Patrignani G. 18. Perez L. 16. Santarcangelo A. 27. Versienti L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
37', 0 - 1, Cerbone S. ⚽,
45', 0 - 2, Ori R. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Delcarro A. ↓, De Zen R. ↑,
48', Lulic K. ↓, Versienti L. ↑,
50', Versienti L. 🟨,
53', 0 - 3, Grandolfo F. ⚽,
58', Versienti L. 🟥,
58', Ori R. ↓, Anelli N. ↑,
59', Leonetti V. ↓, D'Alena A. ↑,
71', Chirico C. ↓, Di Dio F. ↑,
71', Cerbone S. ↓, Mercadante M. ↑,
76', Bonetti A. ↓, Fall M. ↑,
81', Di Dio F. 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-0.

Renate is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casarano has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Renate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Renate won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Renate	8	0	3	5	6:12	-6	3

Last Results with these Odds

Casarano - the odds 3.78 are the expected chance of winning is 24.28%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casarano - Renate	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Renate - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Trento - Renate	3:3 ✺
13.04.26	Renate - Pro Vercelli	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWTWT
- Casarano Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casarano - Renate	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Nuova Cosenza - Casarano	1:5 ✺
03.05.26	Monopoli - Casarano	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Altamura - Casarano	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	Casarano - Crotone	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casarano - Renate	0:2

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