Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Capozza (Casarano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
World	Onefootball


	Casarano		Renate

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.35	3.9	Watch
	1.99	3.35	4.18
	1.7	3.68	4.44	Watch
	1.83	3.2	3.75
	1.96	3.18	4.14	Watch
	2.14	3.2	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.47)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	3.96 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casarano
48.6%

Draw
27.9%

Renate
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

27.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

27.5%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casarano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Casarano's performance.

Renate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Renate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casarano than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Casarano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renate than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Renate could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Casarano - Renate Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Casarano will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacchin F. (G) 29. Gyamfi B. 34. Negro S. 33. Mercadante M. 3. Giraudo F. 27. Versienti L. 17. Maiello R. 11. Ferrara V. 10. Chirico C. 9. Grandolfo F. 46. Leonetti V.	22. Nobile T. (G) 24. Spedalieri J. 5. Auriletto S. (C) 21. Riviera C. 11. Delcarro A. 14. Cali M. 25. Vassallo F. 17. Bonetti A. 80. Vesentini F. 16. Ekuban J. 9. Karlsson O.
Substitutes
25. Bachini M. 5. Celiento D. 35. Cerbone S. 22. Chiorra N. (G) 8. D'Alena A. 80. Di Dio F. 98. Ferilli M. (G) 24. Gega E. 23. Logoluso G. 4. Lulic K. 7. Palumbo F. 6. Patrignani G. 18. Perez L. 16. Santarcangelo A.	92. Anelli N. 12. Bartoccioni A. (G) 77. De Leo L. 2. De Zen R. 8. Esposito G. 97. Fall M. 3. Gardoni P. 72. Mastromonaco G. 7. Muhameti E. 45. Nene S. 15. Ori R. 6. Rossi G. 71. Ruiz Giraldo P. 19. Ziu D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Karlsson O. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Karlsson O. ⚽,
27', Spedalieri J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mercadante M. ↓, Gega E. ↑,
46', Gyamfi B. ↓, Cerbone S. ↑,
63', Cali M. ↓, De Zen R. ↑,
64', Maiello R. ↓, Lulic K. ↑,
64', Versienti L. ↓, Logoluso G. ↑,
69', Cerbone S. 🟨,
73', 🟨,
73', Spedalieri J. 🟨,
77', Chirico C. 🟨,
78', Giraudo F. ↓, Santarcangelo A. ↑,
79', Vesentini F. ↓, Ori R. ↑,
79', Ekuban J. ↓, Anelli N. ↑,
83', Vassallo F. ↓, Ruiz Giraldo P. ↑,
83', Karlsson O. ↓, De Leo L. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Casarano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Casarano has had a series of away games.

Casarano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Renate	8	0	3	5	6:12	-6	3

Last Results with these Odds

Casarano - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 36.88%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Renate - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.51%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casarano Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
06.05.26	Nuova Cosenza - Casarano	1:5 ✺
03.05.26	Monopoli - Casarano	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Altamura - Casarano	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	Casarano - Crotone	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Latina - Casarano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.7 WWWLW
- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
25.04.26	Renate - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Trento - Renate	3:3 ✺
13.04.26	Renate - Pro Vercelli	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Renate - Novara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWTW

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