Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Southwest University Park (El Paso, TX)

Referee: Encarnación J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	El Paso Locomotive		Rhode Island

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.75
	1.9	3.77	4.07
	2.01	3.55	3.44	Watch
	1.88	3.52	3.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.06)	3.59 ↑ (3.4)	3.76 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Paso Locomotive
49%

Draw
26.1%

Rhode Island
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

27.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Paso Locomotive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

El Paso Locomotive - Rhode Island Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Waite J. (G) 24. Diaz M. 5. Alfaro T. 21. Twumasi K. 12. Ruiz R. 6. Calvillo E. (C) 8. Daroma F. 16. Gabriel Torres 13. Cabrera A. 11. Sorto C. 30. Coronado R.	1. Koke Vegas (C) 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 24. Yao K. 15. Nodarse F. 12. Holstad C. 23. Ybarra M. 20. Herivaux Z. 17. Kwizera J. 18. Brito J. 9. Williams J. 11. Fuson N.
Substitutes
3. Ackwei W. 14. Avila R. 29. Hoban K. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 10. Moreno A. 31. Rodriguez E. 7. Romero B. 77. Villagomez J.	10. Dikwa A. 32. Diop H. 22. Lee J. (G) 27. Ndongo M. 2. Rovira D. 3. Sanchez A. 5. Stoneman G.
Coaches
Cabrera W.	Smith K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Herivaux Z. ⚽,
33', Alfaro T. 🟨,
37', Bacharach Capdevila H. 🟨,
41', Calvillo E. 🟨,
43', Holstad C. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Diaz M. ⚽, Calvillo E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Ruiz R. 🟨,
57', Brito J. ↓, Dikwa A. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Williams J. ⚽, Fuson N. (A),
66', Sorto C. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
66', Daroma F. ↓, Avila R. ↑,
67', Dikwa A. 🟨,
71', Herivaux Z. ↓, Stoneman G. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Holstad C. (Own goal),
77', Nodarse F. 🟨,
85', Nodarse F. ↓, Diop H. ↑,
85', Holstad C. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
87', Avila R. 🟨,
89', Cabrera A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,

Preview

El Paso is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Rhode Island has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Rhode Island has had a series of home games.

In this match, El Paso is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, El Paso won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
20.09.25	El Paso Locomotive - Charleston Battery	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	North Carolina - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	El Paso Locomotive - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Phoenix Rising - El Paso Locomotive	3:3 ✺
23.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLTW
- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
19.09.25	Miami - Rhode Island	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Rhode Island - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
10.09.25	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
06.09.25	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Rhode Island - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
26.06.24	Rhode Island - El Paso Locomotive	3:0

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