Match Info

HNL - Round 36

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka)

Referee: Strukan D. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 4P
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go


	Rijeka		Gorica

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.6	5.25
	1.61	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.5
	1.59	4.03	5.68
	1.55	4.25	5.47	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5
	1.51	4.15	5.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.66)	3.93 ↑ (3.78)	5.43 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rijeka
59.5%

Draw
23.5%

Gorica
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

24.7%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

24%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Rijeka - Gorica Predictions

Users Predictions: Rijeka will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Todorovic A. (G) 22. Orec A. 45. Majstorovic A. (C) 34. Devetak M. 91. Bodetic N. 66. Pavic B. 26. Dantas T. 20. Ndockyt M. 10. Fruk T. 14. Gojak A. 77. Juric A.	71. Matijas D. (G) 45. Peric S. 21. Moustapha H. I. 5. Les M. 22. Trontelj Z. 8. Pozo I. 36. Kavelj A. 25. Bogojevic B. 14. Kucis S. 24. Pavicic D. 50. Erceg A. (C)
Substitutes
18. Adu Adjei D. 15. Grulovic G. 2. Kitin L. 1. Kovac V. (G) 8. Petrovic D. 6. Radeljic S. 11. Rukavina G. 13. Zlomislic M. (G)	7. Bakic O. 19. Cabraja M. 32. Durakovic E. 64. Epailly T. 18. Fiolic I. 35. Josic Z. 77. Kelava M. 67. Prgomet T. 1. Sahinovic M. (G) 11. Sule W. 20. Vrzic L. 30. Zarkov D. (G)
Coaches
Sanchez V.	Carevic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Moustapha H. I. 🟨,
57', Pavicic D. ↓, Epailly T. ↑,
58', Kucis S. ↓, Bakic O. ↑,
62', Ndockyt M. ↓, Kitin L. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Gojak A. ⚽, Orec A. (A),
72', Bogojevic B. ↓, Sule W. ↑,
76', Fruk T. ↓, Adu Adjei D. ↑,
77', Carevic M. 🟨,
78', Bakic O. 🟨,
79', Erceg A. 🟨,
83', Moustapha H. I. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Gojak A. ⚽, Bodetic N. (A),
86', Juric A. ↓, Grulovic G. ↑,
87', Orec A. ↓, Vesligaj V. ↑,
87', Dantas T. ↓, Petrovic D. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 8).

Rijeka is Qualified for Conference League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Rijeka is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Rijeka: Barisic T. (Injury) Husic A. (Inactive) Legbo D. (Red Card) Morchiladze T. (Inactive) Skoric M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Gorica: Prsir J. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:16. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Rijeka won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rijeka	7	4	2	1	13:7	6	14
10	Gorica	9	1	2	6	6:14	-8	5

Last Results with these Odds

Rijeka - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 56.31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
17.05.26	Istra 1961 - Rijeka	0:0 ✺
Croatian Cup
13.05.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
08.05.26	Rijeka - Vukovar 91	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Rijeka	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Rijeka - Hajduk Split	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLWWT
- HNK Gorica
Croatian HNL
16.05.26	Gorica - Osijek	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Slaven Belupo - Gorica	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Gorica - Dinamo Zagreb	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Gorica - Istra 1961	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Vukovar 91 - Gorica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
22.03.26	Gorica - Rijeka	4:0
21.12.25	Rijeka - Gorica	1:0
05.10.25	Gorica - Rijeka	1:3
04.05.25	Rijeka - Gorica	2:1
01.03.25	Gorica - Rijeka	0:0
30.11.24	Rijeka - Gorica	1:0
14.09.24	Gorica - Rijeka	0:1

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