Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 7 October 2023, Saturday

Location: H-E-B Park (Edinburg)

Referee: Arroyo L. (Usa)


	Rio Grande Valley		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.1
	2.21	3.42	3.12
	2.14	3.32	3	Watch
	2.11	3.35	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.81)	3.37 ↑ (3.32)	3.04 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Grande Valley
42.9%

Draw
27.1%

Sacramento Republic
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

27.3%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

26.8%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Grande Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Grande Valley's performance.

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sacramento Republic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Grande Valley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sacramento Republic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rio Grande Valley - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Deric T. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 5. Cabezas J. (C) 15. Nodarse F. 12. Ruiz R. 14. Knapp M. 8. Davila T. 30. Monis A. 10. Pinzon C. 23. Francois C. 9. Lopez F.	31. Vitiello D. (G) 40. Sanchez A. 6. Wiedt S. 24. Donovan C. (C) 2. Gurr J. 19. Ross N. 96. Fernandes L. 5. Timmer J. 7. Keko 11. Cicerone R. 9. Herrera J.
Substitutes
17. Cerro I. 16. Coronado R. 11. Galindrez J. 21. Merancio C. (G) 4. Pimentel E. 20. Ritondale T. 7. Torres F.	17. Archimede L. 18. Fenwick J. 10. Lewis Z. 29. Lopez A. 8. Lopez R. 22. Parano C. 1. Saldana C. (G)
Coaches
Cabrera W.	Briggs M.

Preview

Sacramento Republic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rio Grande Valley won 2.

Recent matches Rio Grande Valley is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sacramento Republic is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sacramento Republic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Rio Grande Valley have a series of guest games.

Rio Grande Valley will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Rio Grande Valley won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Grande Valley won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
04.10.23	Hartford Athletic - Rio Grande Valley	2:2 ✺
30.09.23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Rio Grande Valley	1:1 ✺
24.09.23	Indy Eleven - Rio Grande Valley	0:1 ✺
17.09.23	Rio Grande Valley - Birmingham Legion	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Phoenix Rising - Rio Grande Valley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TTWWL
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
01.10.23	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	2:0 ✺
23.09.23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Sacramento Republic	2:0 ✺
20.09.23	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	0:0 ✺
16.09.23	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Oakland Roots - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
01.07.23	Sacramento Republic - Rio Grande Valley	1:1
06.08.22	Sacramento Republic - Rio Grande Valley	1:1
23.04.22	Rio Grande Valley - Sacramento Republic	2:1
15.09.19	Sacramento Republic - Rio Grande Valley	2:1
20.07.19	Rio Grande Valley - Sacramento Republic	2:1
11.08.18	Sacramento Republic - Rio Grande Valley	2:1
31.03.18	Rio Grande Valley - Sacramento Republic	2:2

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