Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 8 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alberto Grisales (Rionegro)


	Rionegro Águilas		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.83	Watch
	3.3	3	2.15
	4.45	3.55	1.75	Watch
	4.49	3.55	1.85
	3.18	3.18	2.19	Watch
	4.3	3.48	1.82	Watch
	3.75	3.2	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.75)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	1.94 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rionegro Águilas
23.6%

Draw
28%

Independiente Medellín
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

28.7%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

27.4%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rionegro Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	5.9%	94.1%

Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Ind Medellín (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rionegro Águilas (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente Medellín will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.94% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Medellín will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Rionegro Águilas (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Ind Medellín (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farinez W. (G) 4. Puerta M. 29. Lopes H. 5. Hernandez D. 88. Alfonzo D. 16. Pineda J. 22. Lozano F. (C) 23. Caballero J. 11. Yony Gonzalez 37. Ramirez M. 99. Obregon J.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 3. Palacios J. 2. Chaverra L. 33. Londono D. 26. Mena Perea E. 19. Fydriszewski F. 10. Barrera J. 14. Perlaza B. 16. Loboa H. 27. Leon B. 13. Chaverra F.
Substitutes
24. Avalo Trejos J. E. 12. Banguera G. (G) 18. Cadavi G. 15. Charales F. 17. Cosme H. 30. Lara Vasquez N. 26. Lozano D. 19. Morelo W. 2. Rodriguez S.	7. Berrio L. 25. Chaux E. (G) 8. Garcia M. 28. Mena J. 31. Moreno D. 24. Ortiz J. 9. Sandoval L. 80. Serna A. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Risueno J.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Puerta M. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Hernandez D. ⚽, Caballero J. (A),
37', Lopes H. 🟨,
39', 2 - 1, Palacios J. ⚽, Barrera J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Charales F. ↑,
65', Leon B. 🟨,
69', Charales F. 🟨,
69', Perlaza B. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
70', Berrio L. 🟨,
72', Puerta M. 🟨,
76', Puerta M. ↓, Lozano D. ↑,
78', Mena Perea E. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
78', Leon B. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
79', Hernandez D. 🟨,
83', Chaverra F. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
84', Loboa H. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
89', Caballero J. ↓, Avalo Trejos J. E. ↑,
89', Ramirez M. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
89', Obregon J. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rionegro Águilas won 0.

Rionegro Águilas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind Medellín is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ind Medellín is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rionegro Águilas won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:25. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rionegro Águilas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.83%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
04.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:2 ✺
28.09.25	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Cali	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Llaneros SA - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Rionegro Águilas - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWTL
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Copa
01.10.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	0:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
27.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
Colombian Copa
24.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
21.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:2 ✺
07.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
29.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	0:0
14.09.24	Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín	1:1
03.03.24	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	1:0
25.08.23	Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín	1:1
04.03.23	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	3:0
22.11.22	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
12.11.22	Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín	1:0

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