Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Chilevision, ESPN Premium
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app, Pluto TV


	River Plate Montevideo		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.55	4.1	6
	1.55	4.3	5.45	Watch
	1.55	4.25	6.33
	1.56	4.12	6.08	Watch
	1.5	3.9	5.8	Watch
	1.58	4.1	6.07	Watch
	1.55	4.3	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (2.93)	4.13 ↑ (2.85)	5.9 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
61.1%

Draw
22.9%

Atlético Mineiro
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

29.2%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

25.8%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+32.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate Montevideo's performance.

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-26.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-36%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+31.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

River Plate Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 59.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (C) 16. Bustos F. 6. Pezzella G. 17. Diaz P. 24. Acuna M. 5. Kranevitter M. 31. Simon S. 8. Meza M. 36. Solari P. 9. Miguel Borja 11. Colidio F.	22. Everson (G) 2. Lyanco 21. Battaglia R. 8. Alonso J. 13. Guilherme Arana 6. Gustavo Scarpa 18. Fausto Vera 23. Franco A. 10. Paulinho 7. Hulk (C) 9. Deyverson
Substitutes
7. Bareiro A. 20. Casco M. 13. Diaz E. 19. Echeverri C. 4. Fonseca N. 2. Gattoni F. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 10. Lanzini M. 25. Ledesma C. (G) 18. Martinez P. 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Villagra R.	14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 3. Bruno Fuchs 11. Eduardo Vargas 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 27. Monteiro P. 5. Otavio 26. Renzo Saravia 44. Rubens
Coaches
Gallardo M.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Lyanco 🟨,
28', Everson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lyanco ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
58', Simon S. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
58', Solari P. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
58', Kranevitter M. ↓, Villagra R. ↑,
63', Deyverson ↓, Rubens ↑,
64', Miguel Borja ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
64', Colidio F. ↓, Martinez P. ↑,
73', Paulinho ↓, Otavio ↑,
86', Guilherme Arana ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.

River Plate is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Atlético MG is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

River Plate could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match River Plate is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches River Plate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0:7 (average 0:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
22.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.24	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
12.10.24	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:1 ✺
04.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.24	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
09.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
22.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
18.08.21	Atlético Mineiro - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
11.08.21	River Plate Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro	0:1

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