Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 40

Date: 7 April 2023, Friday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Haines A. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Walsall

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.9
	2.6	3.1	2.75
	2.75	3.05	2.65
	2.62	3.18	2.98
	2.6	3.1	2.8
	2.55	3.18	2.85	Watch
	2.55	3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.9)	3.1 ↑ (2.9)	2.8 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
36.1%

Draw
30.3%

Walsall
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

31.7%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Walsall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Walsall than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	31.6%	31.6%

Rochdale - Walsall Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Walsall will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rochdale: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 13).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (81.73%), project points - 36, currently - 29, a very good chance of relegated (96%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Walsall has the most likely position - 13 (17.22%), project points - 59, currently - 50, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has very small quality 7, very small importance 8, very small match rating 7. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Walsall could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
01.04.23	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
25.03.23	Crawley Town - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Rochdale - Swindon Town	4:4 ✺
11.03.23	Grimsby Town - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
04.03.23	Rochdale - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WLTLW
- Walsall FC
English League Two
01.04.23	Walsall - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
28.03.23	AFC Wimbledon - Walsall	2:0 ✺
25.03.23	Grimsby Town - Walsall	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Walsall - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
14.03.23	Walsall - Swindon Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
29.10.22	Walsall - Rochdale	1:0
09.04.22	Rochdale - Walsall	1:0
20.11.21	Walsall - Rochdale	0:0
English League One
02.02.19	Walsall - Rochdale	1:2
25.08.18	Rochdale - Walsall	1:2
06.03.18	Walsall - Rochdale	0:3
23.12.17	Rochdale - Walsall	1:1

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