Match Info

ITALY: Coppa Italia - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 December 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Roma		Sampdoria

	1	X	2
	1.22	6	12
	1.22	6.25	13
	1.21	6.4	14.5	Watch
	1.24	6.4	14
	1.23	6.41	12.24	Watch
	1.22	5.8	13
	1.26	6.55	10.5
	1.22	6.5	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.36)	6.29 ↑ (4.89)	13.03 ↑ (8.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
77.6%

Draw
15.1%

Sampdoria
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

19.4%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

12.2%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roma's performance.

Sampdoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-33.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sampdoria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	9.8%	4.9%

Roma - Sampdoria Predictions

Users Predictions: Roma will win (32 of 37 users predict this - 86.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.48% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Ryan M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 59. Zalewski N. 61. Pisilli N. 16. Paredes L. (C) 3. Angelino 56. Saelemaekers A. 35. Baldanzi T. 11. Dovbyk A.	1. Vismara P. (G) 18. Venuti L. 17. Meulensteen M. 31. Vulikic S. 72. Veroli D. 15. Akinsanmiro E. 28. Yepes G. 4. Vieira R. (C) 16. Borini F. 34. Leonardi S. 11. Pedrola E.
Substitutes
12. Abdulhamid S. 66. Buba Aboubacar 26. Dahl S. 21. Dybala P. 92. El Shaarawy S. 28. Le Fee E. 89. Marin R. (G) 7. Pellegrini Lo. 14. Shomurodov E. 18. Soule M. 99. Svilar M. (G)	3. Barreca A. 7. Bellemo A. 80. Benedetti L. 9. Coda M. 23. Depaoli F. 22. Ghidotti S. (G) 21. Giordano S. 29. Girelli S. 44. Ioannou N. 20. La Gumina A. 30. Ravaglia N. (G) 8. Ricci M. 5. Riccio A. 84. Sekulov N. 10. Tutino G.
Coaches
Ranieri C.	Semplici L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Dovbyk A. ⚽, Saelemaekers A. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Dovbyk A. ⚽,
23', Pisilli N. 🟨,
24', 3 - 0, Baldanzi T. ⚽, Paredes L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Veroli D. ↓, Ioannou N. ↑,
46', Pedrola E. ↓, Depaoli F. ↑,
51', Vulikic S. 🟨,
61', 3 - 1, Yepes G. ⚽, Depaoli F. (A),
62', Vieira R. ↓, Benedetti L. ↑,
62', Pisilli N. ↓, Le Fee E. ↑,
62', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
67', Borini F. 🟨,
69', Leonardi S. ↓, Sekulov N. ↑,
70', Paredes L. ↓, Pellegrini Lo. ↑,
71', Zalewski N. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
78', Dovbyk A. ↓, Shomurodov E. ↑,
78', Akinsanmiro E. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
79', 4 - 1, Shomurodov E. ⚽, Angelino (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Roma won 3.

Recent matches Roma is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sampdoria is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sampdoria could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Roma is absolute favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Roma won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 30:17 (average 1.5:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Roma won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23:9 (average 2.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
15.12.24	Como - Roma	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.12.24	Roma - Braga	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
07.12.24	Roma - Lecce	4:1 ✺
02.12.24	Roma - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Roma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLT
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
14.12.24	Sampdoria - Spezia	0:0 ✺
08.12.24	Sassuolo - Sampdoria	5:1 ✺
30.11.24	Sampdoria - Catanzaro	3:3 ✺
24.11.24	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Pisa - Sampdoria	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Roma - Sampdoria	3:0
17.10.22	Sampdoria - Roma	0:1
03.04.22	Sampdoria - Roma	0:1
22.12.21	Roma - Sampdoria	1:1
02.05.21	Sampdoria - Roma	2:0
03.01.21	Roma - Sampdoria	1:0
24.06.20	Roma - Sampdoria	2:1

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